Independent Bay Area housing research

Understand the city behind the home price.

Compare housing values, tax-base growth and audited city finances across eight Peninsula cities. Follow the evidence behind each city’s housing research question.

8 cities + county benchmark3,114 sourced observationsLatest retrieval 2026-09-14
Verified housing history

Peninsula comparison

Zillow Home Value Index · Jul 2026. Alphabetical order. Alpha rankings await a validated model.

All homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted. Nominal values; changes exclude rent, costs and financing.
CityTypical home value10-year change20-year changeValue ÷ county
Burlingame$2,817,833+59.3%+145.8%1.77×
Daly City$1,137,024+44.0%+80.6%0.71×
Millbrae$2,055,633+55.8%+133.7%1.29×
Pacifica$1,276,738+45.9%+72.5%0.80×
Redwood City$1,893,533+50.7%+138.2%1.19×
San Bruno$1,308,809+64.0%+112.5%0.82×
San Mateo$1,685,162+46.8%+107.8%1.06×
South San Francisco$1,235,804+51.8%+86.7%0.77×
San Mateo County$1,596,366+45.1%+94.0%1.00×

Source: Zillow Research city series and county series. Changes use the same month 10 and 20 years before Jul 2026. A lower value ratio does not by itself establish underpricing.

Audited city finances

Follow the General Fund

FY2025 · July 2024–June 2025. Alphabetical order; figures reflect each city’s reporting scope.

Actual General Fund results · dollars. The ratio uses only unassigned balance.
CityRevenueExpendituresChange after financingUnassigned ÷ expenditures
Burlingame$93,701,502$79,546,065$236,38510.1%
Daly City$130,096,253$121,057,885-$948,02450.0%
Millbrae$45,228,377$41,139,043$1,030,91641.1%
Pacifica$50,571,184$45,513,387$3,895,19736.1%
Redwood City$209,134,159$185,843,331-$2,302,64518.3%
San Bruno$72,530,696$56,416,769$5,239,84894.8%
San Mateo$179,094,076$176,559,810$1,581,52060.6%
South San Francisco$181,740,074$149,354,355$20,293,37261.8%

Source: each city’s FY2025 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, General Fund column in the audited basic statements. Open a city for the reconciliation and source pages. Fund classifications, consolidation and one-time items limit comparisons. These figures do not establish fiscal health or predict home-price returns.

The research questions

Explore each city

Each thesis is a hypothesis to test. Pages show the history, opposing case and evidence still needed.

San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

Burlingame

Typical home value · Jul 2026$2,817,833
10-year value change+59.3%

How much of Burlingame’s quality and economic base is reflected in housing values?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

Daly City

Typical home value · Jul 2026$1,137,024
10-year value change+44.0%

Can proximity to San Francisco and constrained supply support housing outperformance?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

Millbrae

Typical home value · Jul 2026$2,055,633
10-year value change+55.8%

What explains Millbrae’s valuation premium, and is that premium durable?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

Pacifica

Typical home value · Jul 2026$1,276,738
10-year value change+45.9%

Does coastal scarcity outweigh access constraints and location-specific risks?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

Redwood City

Typical home value · Jul 2026$1,893,533
10-year value change+50.7%

Does Redwood City provide evidence that employment and downtown investment lead residential revaluation?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

San Bruno

Typical home value · Jul 2026$1,308,809
10-year value change+64.0%

How much of the price gap with Millbrae reflects durable differences, and how much could narrow?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

San Mateo

Typical home value · Jul 2026$1,685,162
10-year value change+46.8%

Can San Mateo’s amenities and employment access sustain strong long-run housing performance?

Explore history and evidence →
San Mateo CountyResearch in progress

South San Francisco

Typical home value · Jul 2026$1,235,804
10-year value change+51.8%

Has growth in the commercial tax base created residential value that home prices have yet to reflect?

Explore history and evidence →

What this edition covers

Housing values from Jan 2000 to Jul 2026 and net assessed values from 2006 to 2026, with source links and a San Mateo County benchmark. FY2025 General Fund results are available for all eight cities. Earlier fiscal years, demographics and development research are still being assembled.

Alpha Scores and forecasts are withheld until their inputs and methodology are ready. Read the draft score framework and publication standards.

Research updates

The Bay Area Housing Alpha Report

A monthly review of housing trends and city finances, with sources you can inspect. Free to read and subscribe.

Subscribe to the monthly edition Read the research journal →