What the numbers mean

Current coverage

Selected evidence (latest retrieval 2026-09-14) includes monthly Zillow home values from Jan 2000 through Jul 2026 and annual county assessment-roll values from 2006 through 2026. The eight cities and San Mateo County use consistent housing and assessment series definitions. FY2025 audited General Fund statements are also loaded for all eight cities; property-tax detail is verified for six.

The county benchmark covers the full county, including places outside our city universe. It is not an equal-weight average of these eight cities. All published comparisons here are descriptive.

Housing history

Zillow’s Home Value Index measures a modeled typical home value for the middle of the housing market. We use the all-homes, smoothed, seasonally adjusted series. It is not the median price of homes sold.

A 10-year change is 100 × (ending value ÷ value in the same month ten years earlier − 1). If the exact baseline period is absent, the result is withheld. Values are nominal. Appreciation excludes rental income, taxes, maintenance, transaction costs and financing.

Zillow revises historical data. A current download cannot establish what was known at an earlier date. Pre-2012 history also uses Zillow’s harmonized historical series. Any retrospective study using this vintage must disclose these limitations.

Assessment-roll history

We retain net secured plus unsecured local assessed values from the county assessor’s historical tables. Years identify the January 1 lien date, with the associated fiscal year beginning in July. The historical reports overlap in 2015; their values reconcile exactly. The revised 2025 and the 2026 combined-roll summaries reconcile to the preceding year for every covered geography. Each summary also reconciles all 20 cities to the incorporated subtotal, and that subtotal plus unincorporated areas to the county total.

Roll growth can reflect transfers, construction, inflation adjustments and assessment changes. It does not measure residential market appreciation or city revenue. Residential and nonresidential composition must be verified separately before using it to support an economic thesis.

Municipal finances

Fiscal years run from July 1 to June 30 and are labeled by the ending year. We use the General Fund reporting aggregate in audited basic financial statements, on the modified-accrual GAAP basis. Government-wide amounts, all-governmental-fund totals, unaudited statistical schedules and budget figures are not substituted for these values.

Revenue less expenditures plus net other financing sources and uses reconciles to the change in fund balance. The reported opening balance, including explicit restatements where applicable, plus this change reconciles to the balance sheet. Balance classifications and assets less liabilities and deferred inflows provide additional cross-checks.

Unassigned balance divided by same-year expenditures is a descriptive ratio. It excludes other balance classifications, and differences in reserve policy and fund consolidation can affect city comparisons. Other financing can include transfers, asset sales and lease or subscription financing. A single year cannot establish a recurring operating surplus or fiscal strength.

Historical fiscal statements, long-term obligations and one-time items are still pending. Source notes disclose extraction methods and restatements. South San Francisco’s PDF has broken text encoding; its retained OCR values were checked against the rendered statement pages.

Alpha Score v1 draft

This proposal is inactive. It is a descriptive framework until an evaluation supports predictive use. Owner approval and complete evidence are required before activation.

Each component would be measured on a 0–10 scale. The weighted sum uses 10 minus the risk component, so higher risk reduces the final score. A missing component withholds the entire score; weights are never redistributed around missing data.

Input definitions, transformations, peer selection and sensitivity checks still need validation. No numerical city score is shown while those decisions remain open.

Forecast accountability

Published records must include the exact model version, source vintage, input IDs, publication date and benchmark. New observations cannot rewrite an old forecast. Corrections receive new records and an explanation.

Evaluation will compare realized appreciation with each original scenario and benchmark, using only information available at the publication date. Revised historical downloads cannot stand in for archived information. We will report misses alongside hits.

Metric catalog

Coverage counts cities with at least one verified observation; it does not imply a complete historical series. Pending metrics contribute no values or scores.

Source standards

Official audited and administrative sources support government metrics. Systematic market datasets support housing history. Secondary reporting may provide context, but does not substitute for a reproducible core series.

Each observation retains its geography, unit, period, source, location within the source and ingestion version. Source records retain retrieval dates and SHA-256 hashes. Unknown publication dates remain unknown; we do not backdate knowledge. Active evidence bundles are 2026-09-14, 2026-09-14-municipal. Bundles are explicitly selected; duplicate active periods fail validation. New evidence does not overwrite previously retained vintages.

• Zillow Research: ZHVI all homes mid-tier smoothed seasonally adjusted citiesOriginal columns; only documented RegionID rows retained. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Typical modeled home value, not median sale price. Full history is revised by the publisher; this vintage is not point-in-time historical evidence.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 85779336dad4da66724bed3968bc9b8ea38332395cd4739335a555e998b8341b

• Zillow Research: ZHVI all homes mid-tier smoothed seasonally adjusted countiesOriginal columns; only documented RegionID rows retained. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Typical modeled home value, not median sale price. Full history is revised by the publisher; this vintage is not point-in-time historical evidence.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 8ea53a5461073e62b1d7f0eb216290954246f56ba344a227956665ab19c2b271

• San Mateo County Assessor: 2015-2016 Assessor Annual ReportPrinted pages 18-19, PDF pages 20-21; City Assessment Roll Totals 10-Years Historical. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Net secured plus unsecured local assessment roll. Annual stock at January 1 lien date, associated with fiscal year beginning in the same calendar year. Not market value, municipal revenue, or residential appreciation.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 874c589970d5d4063070d73bbe70b73a33cc358fd86bfbf0af7fb295b2aa3bcc

• San Mateo County Assessor: 2024-2025 Assessor Annual ReportPrinted pages 18-19, PDF pages 20-21; City Assessment Roll Totals 10-Years Historical. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Net secured plus unsecured local assessment roll. Annual stock at January 1 lien date, associated with fiscal year beginning in the same calendar year. Not market value, municipal revenue, or residential appreciation.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 72bfcb54f40693274513038f44e4b1e35c2e633774f93ebefb0f0aec78e35623

• City of South San Francisco: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 34 (PDF 50); revenues/expenditures printed page 38 (PDF 54); audit opinion PDF 17. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  General Fund column in the basic financial statements, including funds consolidated for financial reporting. The budget schedule is explicitly non-GAAP and is not used. PDF text encoding is broken; retained OCR was visually checked against PDF pages 50 and 54.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: d79d3c0a20b4c8ec13c15ccbf877c5fe16e5470b63c7c81aee037ba687ffd9cc

• City of San Bruno: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 34 (PDF 54); revenues/expenditures printed page 38 (PDF 58); audit opinion PDF 21. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  General Fund reporting aggregate, not just its operating subfund. The report also presents General Fund combining schedules. Taxes are bundled in the basic statement; property tax is pending rather than taken from a budget schedule.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: be4f133368dccf152f14db1a97dba36918b9842ba6696425a3d1bf3a377be018

• City of Daly City: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 22 (PDF 44); revenues/expenditures printed page 24 (PDF 46); audit opinion PDF 23. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  General Fund column from the audited basic fund financial statements. Government-wide activities, other funds and budget-to-actual schedules are excluded.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: c5a08271580266705b75dac3ab2dfa4a7817c4b725bbd49c48a4632d498ac7c2

• City of Millbrae: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 32 (PDF 50); revenues/expenditures printed page 34 (PDF 52); audit opinion PDF 19. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  General Fund column from the audited basic fund financial statements. Government-wide activities, other funds and budget-to-actual schedules are excluded.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 345932807cefcf47ab64e65ab0b5976dab872b2531be8164b1d5692e5f09b314

• City of Pacifica: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 32 (PDF 52); revenues/expenditures printed page 34 (PDF 54); audit opinion PDF 21. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  General Fund column; Disaster Accounting and capital projects funds are separate. General Fund opening balance is unchanged by the displayed fund reclassifications. Taxes are bundled; property tax remains pending.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 8d51ef0601638eb7b8013bdfb95510947ec7f677821056c82240be55e51ecc21

• City of San Mateo: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 37 (PDF 59); revenues/expenditures printed page 39 (PDF 61); audit opinion PDF 23. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  General Fund column from the audited basic fund financial statements. Government-wide activities, other funds and budget-to-actual schedules are excluded.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 1b71fa847a0d34402cb5897a60a7a60cc2b3cf16f5e70248d00637d196835de2

• City of Redwood City: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 33 (PDF 57); revenues/expenditures printed page 35 (PDF 59); audit opinion PDF 25. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Uses the restated General Fund opening balance of $127,936,194, which includes a $7,813,184 adjustment to the previously reported balance. The year-end change cannot be compared directly with the unadjusted prior balance. See Note 19.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 5178396f23e98931e3d1f92545fd1f6ee00b000f690b690fd4c40472da03ef3a

• City of Burlingame: Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, fiscal year ended June 30, 2025General Fund column; balance sheet printed page 30 (PDF 56); revenues/expenditures printed page 32 (PDF 58); audit opinion PDF 27. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Unassigned balance excludes the restricted and assigned portions of General Fund balance. Classification choices matter when comparing ratios across cities.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: c366e5d13b74dba76faa6b76f73ef58cdd0343e666325b0d416bcd41a3ca3797

• San Mateo County Assessor: 2025-26 Local Combined Roll (revised October 29, 2025)PDF page 1; city rows and Total Local Combined Roll; current and previous Local Roll columns. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Net local combined secured and unsecured roll. Roll year maps to January 1 lien date; fiscal year starts July 1. Revised allocation of five unincorporated secured parcels to Belmont and San Carlos; retain revised source. Previous-year columns reconcile to the preceding retained source for all covered geographies. All 20 city rows reconcile to Incorporated Cities, and incorporated plus unincorporated equals county total.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 5563f82b46b590ae795dcf2ec7c7362d722a6c5c38f73c088c6f42acd67c3f07

• San Mateo County Assessor: 2026-27 Local Combined RollPDF page 1; city rows and Total Local Combined Roll; current and previous Local Roll columns. Retrieved 2026-09-14.
  Source and method notes

  Net local combined secured and unsecured roll. Roll year maps to January 1 lien date; fiscal year starts July 1. Previous-year columns reconcile to the preceding retained source for all covered geographies. All 20 city rows reconcile to Incorporated Cities, and incorporated plus unincorporated equals county total.

  Publisher methodology

  Upstream SHA-256: 63dac759ce86804c4a678deafbc45de2176027509ce24aff4f8e9db5c448ed71