San Francisco: two large housing markets and a new zoning framework

San Francisco adds a much deeper pool of observed sales to the publication, but more observations do not make the city a single interchangeable market. A single-family search and a condo search begin at different price levels and involve different ownership questions. The useful first step is to separate those products and keep the comparison period visible.

What sold, and how history compares

Observation window: June 1–August 31, 2026. Comparisons below use the same June–August season. Prices are nominal dollars.

• Single-family homes: median $1,868,905 across 693 sales.

• 2025 comparison: +20.2% from a median of $1,554,250 (672 sales) in June–August 2025. This is a change in the sales median, not a matched-home appreciation rate.

• 2021 comparison: +2.5% from a median of $1,822,500 (892 sales) in June–August 2021. This is a change in the sales median, not a matched-home appreciation rate.

• Condos/co-ops: median $1,224,629 across 742 sales.

• 2025 comparison: +11.3% from a median of $1,100,000 (555 sales) in June–August 2025. This is a change in the sales median, not a matched-home appreciation rate.

• 2021 comparison: -2.0% from a median of $1,250,000 (1099 sales) in June–August 2021. This is a change in the sales median, not a matched-home appreciation rate.

The latest window contains 693 single-family sales and 742 condo/co-op sales. Both medians are above their matching 2025 readings, yet their comparison with 2021 differs: the single-family median is higher and the condo/co-op median lower. This is a broad citywide pattern, not a neighborhood forecast. The larger sample makes the aggregate statistics more informative than a one-sale market, but it still cannot hold location, building quality, unit size or ownership costs constant.

What local plans establish

SF Planning says the Family Zoning Plan was signed on December 12, 2025 and became effective January 12, 2026. The department provides adopted zoning maps and warns that parts of its explanatory page are being updated to match the final plan. This edition treats the change as an adopted zoning framework, with parcel-specific interpretation requiring the adopted materials. It does not equate added capacity with completed homes. SF Planning’s Family Zoning Plan.

The case worth testing

The positive case is that a buyer can identify a location and housing type whose current benefits justify its cost, then examine how actual nearby changes might alter that experience. The site’s nearby-project map can make the second step more concrete, provided each project’s dated status and coverage limits remain visible. A project elsewhere in the city is not automatically relevant to an address. Likewise, zoning capacity may create future choices without immediately changing the supply offered for sale.

The opposing case

The opposing case is that an attractive citywide trend masks weaker conditions in the buildings or neighborhoods the buyer can afford. Condo expenses, property condition and future project disruption do not appear in a city median. A stronger 2026 reading also cannot retrospectively validate a prediction made without this evidence. The historical series is a current retained vintage and may include revisions; it is not a reconstruction of everything buyers knew in 2021 or 2025.

What would change our view

The next research layer should split the city into defensible local areas and pair property characteristics with nearby project milestones. Track permits, starts and completions separately after the zoning change, then evaluate actual outcomes against a preselected comparison. Until that exists, use the citywide charts for orientation and the project map for specific questions. Neither supplies an address-level valuation or proof of a development premium.

Explore the evidence

Open San Francisco’s interactive sales history or compare San Francisco with Daly City and South San Francisco. You can change home type, period and history range in the comparison.

Explore San Francisco’s dated project map.

Read the 17-city market report and the companion housing-plans report.

Sources and method

Sales source: Redfin Data Center download; metric definitions. These observations cover overlapping rolling three-month windows; this edition compares the same June–August season in different years. It does not sum adjacent windows or average their medians. Price-per-square-foot samples may contain fewer homes than the total sales count. The retained download was retrieved September 16, 2026 and labels its source update September 3, 2026.

This is desk research with official sources reviewed September 17, 2026. It includes no fieldwork, interviews, address-level valuation or validated price forecast. The original eight-city models retain their existing scope. Future updates should preserve this edition and identify changed evidence rather than rewrite its historical interpretation.