Model Lab · evidence for your home search

Understand the market behind your shortlist.

Compare buying conditions, test your budget, and explore model predictions alongside their actual outcomes.

Market tools and forecast evaluations cover the eight research cities. Compare prices and historical changes across all 25 cities →

Market conditions · observed history

How competitive is the market?

Compare homes for sale and time to reach a contract. Look at the same season a year earlier to put today’s conditions in context.

Latest captured market, rent and mortgage update

Checking the source archive… The reviewed history below keeps its published dates.

Market yearPeriod ending

Jun 2026–Aug 2026Three-month rolling window

Explore the history

Mar 2012Aug 2026

Single-family homes · Jun 2026–Aug 2026. Revised data retrieved 2026-09-16; this does not recreate what was published at the time.

Daly City

Less inventory and faster contracts

Homes for sale at period end: 33
Median days to a contract: 16
Closed sales over three months: 72
Median sale price: $1,299,239

See the year-earlier comparison

Aug 2026 versus Aug 2025; each sales measure spans three months.
Measure	Selected period	Year earlier
Inventory	33	34
Days to contract	16	17
Closed sales	72	73
New listings	89	84
Pending sales	72	77

Pacifica

Less inventory and faster contracts

Homes for sale at period end: 33
Median days to a contract: 19
Closed sales over three months: 80
Median sale price: $1,349,209

See the year-earlier comparison

Aug 2026 versus Aug 2025; each sales measure spans three months.
Measure	Selected period	Year earlier
Inventory	33	35
Days to contract	19	22
Closed sales	80	66
New listings	77	61
Pending sales	75	60

San Bruno

Inventory and contract speed give a mixed picture

Homes for sale at period end: 15
Median days to a contract: 13
Closed sales over three months: 56
Median sale price: $1,457,146

See the year-earlier comparison

Aug 2026 versus Aug 2025; each sales measure spans three months.
Measure	Selected period	Year earlier
Inventory	15	15
Days to contract	13	18
Closed sales	56	66
New listings	51	59
Pending sales	46	68

Homes available over time

Homes counted in each named geography. 2012-03 to 2026-08.

Daly City 33Pacifica 33San Bruno 15

View exact values (174 periods)

Homes available over time: homes; missing values are unavailable
Month	Daly City	Pacifica	San Bruno
2026-08	33	33	15
2026-07	36	30	17
2026-06	27	34	20
2026-05	24	35	20
2026-04	25	25	23
2026-03	32	26	20
2026-02	33	21	18
2026-01	19	20	11
2025-12	14	9	6
2025-11	35	25	11
2025-10	36	40	13
2025-09	42	42	17
2025-08	34	35	15
2025-07	37	33	22
2025-06	32	41	26
2025-05	36	38	28
2025-04	37	29	21
2025-03	31	32	16
2025-02	39	30	14
2025-01	24	19	13
2024-12	11	18	9
2024-11	16	29	24
2024-10	24	37	30
2024-09	34	28	27
2024-08	29	35	28
2024-07	30	41	26
2024-06	32	33	25
2024-05	39	41	18
2024-04	26	24	7
2024-03	15	20	10
2024-02	18	17	13
2024-01	20	18	12
2023-12	11	19	6
2023-11	26	28	14
2023-10	27	35	20
2023-09	33	40	21
2023-08	30	24	13
2023-07	24	24	11
2023-06	24	24	13
2023-05	21	22	16
2023-04	26	30	11
2023-03	25	22	10
2023-02	26	15	9
2023-01	30	15	13
2022-12	29	16	13
2022-11	48	28	21
2022-10	60	34	29
2022-09	53	32	29
2022-08	51	30	29
2022-07	50	38	28
2022-06	48	38	23
2022-05	46	19	18
2022-04	24	17	15
2022-03	21	18	12
2022-02	24	23	13
2022-01	17	16	14
2021-12	19	7	8
2021-11	39	18	9
2021-10	39	19	18
2021-09	52	26	21
2021-08	47	24	20
2021-07	41	20	24
2021-06	35	25	22
2021-05	27	21	17
2021-04	27	16	15
2021-03	24	20	9
2021-02	36	14	15
2021-01	29	20	11
2020-12	25	12	11
2020-11	41	25	19
2020-10	60	32	26
2020-09	69	34	28
2020-08	73	36	26
2020-07	72	33	34
2020-06	60	29	39
2020-05	54	54	32
2020-04	50	38	38
2020-03	34	29	22
2020-02	38	29	24
2020-01	15	25	21
2019-12	15	17	17
2019-11	34	31	23
2019-10	53	41	32
2019-09	49	51	42
2019-08	33	53	32
2019-07	37	45	31
2019-06	38	45	25
2019-05	36	45	28
2019-04	34	35	28
2019-03	26	18	16
2019-02	29	26	18
2019-01	28	28	17
2018-12	22	17	16
2018-11	31	33	25
2018-10	48	34	24
2018-09	44	39	26
2018-08	34	22	22
2018-07	33	22	22
2018-06	36	19	14
2018-05	25	17	14
2018-04	28	26	16
2018-03	20	23	15
2018-02	23	21	12
2018-01	20	13	10
2017-12	15	11	6
2017-11	27	11	15
2017-10	32	14	18
2017-09	33	30	13
2017-08	26	19	18
2017-07	33	25	20
2017-06	37	14	19
2017-05	40	21	20
2017-04	35	24	23
2017-03	39	24	18
2017-02	28	25	9
2017-01	23	22	7
2016-12	35	17	7
2016-11	48	39	14
2016-10	47	46	18
2016-09	48	49	33
2016-08	46	39	36
2016-07	43	34	35
2016-06	41	32	39
2016-05	27	23	33
2016-04	35	30	22
2016-03	32	18	15
2016-02	32	21	13
2016-01	27	18	14
2015-12	27	12	14
2015-11	34	23	24
2015-10	44	27	27
2015-09	44	33	21
2015-08	47	32	24
2015-07	44	31	22
2015-06	36	39	17
2015-05	36	36	17
2015-04	32	27	21
2015-03	39	36	18
2015-02	35	29	15
2015-01	37	25	10
2014-12	33	25	10
2014-11	50	35	17
2014-10	49	39	22
2014-09	54	43	28
2014-08	51	26	22
2014-07	51	36	27
2014-06	48	32	27
2014-05	42	28	21
2014-04	37	34	18
2014-03	36	31	21
2014-02	46	27	22
2014-01	39	32	19
2013-12	35	17	14
2013-11	49	22	26
2013-10	62	25	30
2013-09	67	37	35
2013-08	62	30	29
2013-07	53	33	20
2013-06	55	35	15
2013-05	58	26	25
2013-04	47	25	19
2013-03	49	20	21
2013-02	36	23	19
2013-01	40	19	19
2012-12	27	20	20
2012-11	41	33	22
2012-10	51	47	24
2012-09	52	40	20
2012-08	55	40	21
2012-07	61	46	22
2012-06	68	51	28
2012-05	57	47	38
2012-04	65	48	38
2012-03	68	58	38

Time to reach a contract

Median days from listing to contract for the named series. 2012-03 to 2026-08.

Daly City 16Pacifica 19San Bruno 13

View exact values (174 periods)

Time to reach a contract: days; missing values are unavailable
Month	Daly City	Pacifica	San Bruno
2026-08	16	19	13
2026-07	14	18	14
2026-06	13	14	14
2026-05	14	13	12
2026-04	13	12	11
2026-03	15	11	8
2026-02	15	14	12
2026-01	18	25	14
2025-12	18	19	17
2025-11	22	18	15
2025-10	22	22	15
2025-09	21	20	18
2025-08	17	22	18
2025-07	14	24	14
2025-06	14	24	12
2025-05	14	15	11
2025-04	13	12	12
2025-03	13	14	13
2025-02	15	16	29
2025-01	16	21	29
2024-12	17	17	16
2024-11	18	21	12
2024-10	21	22	14
2024-09	21	22	16
2024-08	16	23	13
2024-07	15	14	12
2024-06	14	12	11
2024-05	13	10	11
2024-04	13	18	15
2024-03	15	32	19
2024-02	15	26	22
2024-01	21	33	25
2023-12	21	25	20
2023-11	20	27	12
2023-10	15	15	12
2023-09	14	13	12
2023-08	13	13	9
2023-07	13	14	9
2023-06	12	15	9
2023-05	13	13	13
2023-04	16	13	14
2023-03	19	19	16
2023-02	40	31	26
2023-01	40	37	26
2022-12	38	35	22
2022-11	27	26	26
2022-10	25	23	22
2022-09	16	23	25
2022-08	16	15	15
2022-07	14	12	12
2022-06	12	11	11
2022-05	11	11	10
2022-04	10	10	10
2022-03	11	10	11
2022-02	14	12	12
2022-01	18	14	12
2021-12	17	14	12
2021-11	14	14	12
2021-10	13	14	12
2021-09	13	13	11
2021-08	12	10	10
2021-07	11	11	9
2021-06	11	10	8
2021-05	12	12	8
2021-04	13	12	9
2021-03	14	13	13
2021-02	26	14	14
2021-01	28	15	18
2020-12	29	16	17
2020-11	26	17	18
2020-10	29	19	20
2020-09	29	23	28
2020-08	28	29	31
2020-07	32	34	36
2020-06	31	34	27
2020-05	26	21	25
2020-04	15	16	19
2020-03	20	18	29
2020-02	24	27	37
2020-01	30	36	42
2019-12	24	36	39
2019-11	17	35	32
2019-10	17	30	30
2019-09	22	32	23
2019-08	18	31	23
2019-07	18	31	18
2019-06	18	21	14
2019-05	20	22	15
2019-04	19	21	15
2019-03	20	28	26
2019-02	28	24	26
2019-01	34	25	29
2018-12	27	19	25
2018-11	20	19	23
2018-10	20	15	16
2018-09	21	14	13
2018-08	18	13	13
2018-07	16	14	14
2018-06	15	15	14
2018-05	16	14	14
2018-04	16	14	14
2018-03	17	12	14
2018-02	19	14	18
2018-01	17	14	16
2017-12	18	16	16
2017-11	18	15	15
2017-10	19	14	15
2017-09	17	14	15
2017-08	18	14	16
2017-07	18	14	16
2017-06	20	14	15
2017-05	20	16	15
2017-04	22	17	13
2017-03	32	17	15
2017-02	35	30	15
2017-01	35	28	21
2016-12	26	26	29
2016-11	19	24	34
2016-10	19	24	31
2016-09	19	25	26
2016-08	20	22	19
2016-07	23	20	15
2016-06	23	18	15
2016-05	24	18	14
2016-04	20	19	15
2016-03	27	24	16
2016-02	28	25	18
2016-01	27	29	28
2015-12	24	26	26
2015-11	19	26	24
2015-10	17	19	16
2015-09	17	15	14
2015-08	16	15	13
2015-07	16	14	14
2015-06	16	12	13
2015-05	14	12	12
2015-04	16	14	11
2015-03	20	16	15
2015-02	40	29	21
2015-01	35	30	28
2014-12	26	25	22
2014-11	21	22	16
2014-10	18	15	15
2014-09	16	14	14
2014-08	15	15	13
2014-07	15	15	13
2014-06	18	14	13
2014-05	17	14	13
2014-04	17	14	13
2014-03	18	15	15
2014-02	29	18	22
2014-01	29	16	25
2013-12	25	17	17
2013-11	22	15	15
2013-10	19	15	13
2013-09	19	15	14
2013-08	16	15	13
2013-07	18	14	14
2013-06	15	13	12
2013-05	15	13	12
2013-04	13	15	12
2013-03	14	18	14
2013-02	15	17	14
2013-01	17	21	15
2012-12	18	18	16
2012-11	18	21	15
2012-10	18	16	16
2012-09	16	14	16
2012-08	18	14	15
2012-07	19	15	16
2012-06	20	23	20
2012-05	24	45	31
2012-04	51	62	35
2012-03	56	66	34

Use this when you review a listing

More available homes and longer marketing times can give you more options to investigate. Ask how the actual property compares with other listings in its price range. These city observations do not predict your offer’s outcome.

What the data and research support

Redfin’s sales and prices cover completed sales; contract time covers homes going under contract. Those populations differ. Inventory is the count at period end. Rolling windows overlap, so adding them would double-count activity. A changing median price can reflect the mix of homes sold.

Year-earlier differences are calculated from retained levels. The two-direction summary appears only when both periods have at least ten closed sales and the two required measures. It describes the observations, with no fitted score or forecast.

Listing behavior motivated this view. The Federal Reserve listing study and buyer-search study use richer inputs and different geographies. This view is not a replication of those forecasts.

Redfin definitions Research and data coverage Download the evidence

Market outlook · experimental

Will homes take longer to reach a contract?

Apply four ways of thinking about the market. Compare what each predicts for the next quarter, then inspect its past misses.

One clear target: days from listing to contract

Longer contract times may give buyers more time to compare listings. This forecasts a city’s median for a calendar quarter, not a particular home’s selling time or price.

No added model earned selection. Same season remains the baseline. See the historical comparison below.

Forecast yearForecast quarter

Oct–Dec 2026Frozen on 2026-09-16

Current blend: Same season 100%.

Apply models and adjust their weights

Weights express your scenario. They are normalized to 100%; they are not probabilities. Changing them recomputes the historical comparison too. This experiment is separate from the annual price-forecast weights.

Current pace

Contract time stays at the latest observed pace.

The most recent eligible three-month window.Current pace weight0 (0% of blend)

Same season

Next quarter resembles the same quarter last year.

The same calendar quarter one year earlier. The retained baseline.Same season weight100 (100% of blend)

Contract-time trend

Recent changes in contract speed help explain what comes next.

Changes in contract days over three months and one year; fitted on other California cities.Contract-time trend weight0 (0% of blend)

Supply & demand

Homes available and the flow of new listings and contracts add information.

Contract-time trends, inventory relative to sales, inventory and sales growth, and pending contracts relative to new listings.Supply & demand weight0 (0% of blend)

Daly City

Your scenario · Oct–Dec 202618 days

Latest input: 16 days · window ending 2026-08-31. Target: 2026-10-01–2026-12-31.

Check the live outcome record below for progress. The frozen study predictions remain unchanged when you adjust these weights.

See every model’s prediction

Daly City, Oct–Dec 2026, median days to contract
Current pace	16 days
Same season	18 days
Contract-time trend	17.9 days
Supply & demand	18.5 days
Equal blend	17.6 days

Latest training outcome: 2026-06-30. 14,606 peer training rows, 49 quarter origins. Inputs stop at 2026-08-31.

Pacifica

Your scenario · Oct–Dec 202619 days

Latest input: 19 days · window ending 2026-08-31. Target: 2026-10-01–2026-12-31.

Check the live outcome record below for progress. The frozen study predictions remain unchanged when you adjust these weights.

See every model’s prediction

Pacifica, Oct–Dec 2026, median days to contract
Current pace	19 days
Same season	19 days
Contract-time trend	18.5 days
Supply & demand	18.1 days
Equal blend	18.6 days

Latest training outcome: 2026-06-30. 14,606 peer training rows, 49 quarter origins. Inputs stop at 2026-08-31.

San Bruno

Your scenario · Oct–Dec 202617 days

Latest input: 13 days · window ending 2026-08-31. Target: 2026-10-01–2026-12-31.

Check the live outcome record below for progress. The frozen study predictions remain unchanged when you adjust these weights.

See every model’s prediction

San Bruno, Oct–Dec 2026, median days to contract
Current pace	13 days
Same season	17 days
Contract-time trend	14.8 days
Supply & demand	17.5 days
Equal blend	15.6 days

Latest training outcome: 2026-06-30. 14,606 peer training rows, 49 quarter origins. Inputs stop at 2026-08-31.

How large were the misses?

The selection period chose the baseline. Later history checks that decision without changing it. Both are exploratory replays using today’s revised source history and an assumed one-month reporting allowance.

Evaluation period

Your cities and weights · average miss5.9 days

Same-season average miss · same rows5.9 days

Largest scenario miss21 days

51 comparable city/quarter rows across 17 quarter origins and 3 selected cities. Average miss is mean absolute error in days; it is not a confidence interval.

Daly City: scenario versus observed contract time

Median days from listing to contract for the named series. 2022 Q2 to 2026 Q2.

Your scenario 14Observed 13

View exact values (17 periods)

Daly City: scenario versus observed contract time: days; missing values are unavailable
Quarter	Your scenario	Observed
2026 Q2	14	13
2026 Q1	13	15
2025 Q4	17	18
2025 Q3	21	21
2025 Q2	14	14
2025 Q1	15	13
2024 Q4	21	17
2024 Q3	14	21
2024 Q2	12	14
2024 Q1	19	15
2023 Q4	38	21
2023 Q3	16	14
2023 Q2	12	12
2023 Q1	11	19
2022 Q4	17	38
2022 Q3	13	16
2022 Q2	11	12

The CSV includes the full available replay and forward scenario with your weights. It is a scenario export, not a new registered forecast.

Full study comparison and selection rule

All eight covered cities, single-family homes. Average absolute miss in days.
Model	Selection period	Later replay
Current pace	7 days	5.8 days
Same season	9.8 days	5.2 days
Contract-time trend	7.6 days	5.7 days
Supply & demand	6.6 days	5.3 days
Equal blend	6.7 days	4.7 days

No candidate passed the prespecified sample, improvement and consistency gate. Retain same-season baseline. A candidate must improve average error at least 10% against both simple baselines, beat same season in at least 7 of 12 origins, and meet the minimum local sample. The sample gate passed.

The selection period has 96 comparable rows and 12 origins; later replay has 136 rows and 17 origins. There are no random city-row splits, and training targets end before each input cutoff. Other California cities can still share regional shocks.

Coefficient fitting uses 299 other California cities; our eight cities are evaluated separately. Neighboring markets are correlated, so city counts overstate independent evidence.

The next live check

October–December 2026: keep the prediction, check the outcome

Thirteen city/home-type forecasts were frozen before October 1. Each week, the data worker captures source evidence. After December 31, it locks each first eligible outcome and reports errors. Thin or missing outcomes remain pending.

Checking the capture record…

Capture status and locked outcomes Latest captured observations and sources

Download the study and source references Frozen October–December predictions What remains untested

Source: Redfin Data Center, retrieved 2026-09-16. Contract-time medians and closed-sales counts describe different transaction populations. The ten-sale quality rule is not a calibrated uncertainty claim. Public 2025 outcomes were already inspected; this is not an untouched historical test.

Rent or buy · your cost scenario

What could owning cost you?

Start with a home price and rent for a comparable home. See the monthly budget, equity built through repayments, and how your assumptions change the longer-term comparison.

Use a dated local price or rent benchmark

Local benchmarks to help you start

Sale prices are for single-family homes. Rental benchmarks include all rental housing and multifamily. They describe different populations; use a comparable property’s rent for your decision.

Daly City

$1,299,239Median sale price · Jun 2026–Aug 2026

$2,765 / monthCity-wide rental benchmark · Jul 2026

Pacifica

$1,349,209Median sale price · Jun 2026–Aug 2026

$3,582 / monthCity-wide rental benchmark · Jul 2026

San Bruno

$1,457,146Median sale price · Jun 2026–Aug 2026

$3,338 / monthCity-wide rental benchmark · Jul 2026

Your assumptions

Enter your own figures, or use a benchmark above. Inputs stay in this page; they are not sent to the server.

Home price ($)Comparable monthly rent ($)Down payment (%)Mortgage interest rate (%)Years you expect to stayAssumed yearly home-price change (%)

Starting mortgage rate: Freddie Mac’s 6.76% national 30-year average, 2026-09-10. Replace it with your lender’s quote, especially for a jumbo loan or different loan term.

Home-price change is your assumption. The starting 0% holds the price flat. It is not a prediction from the research models.

Edit taxes, fees and other assumptions

Taxes, insurance, upkeep and transaction costs start as examples. Check the actual property and your loan terms. Recurring-cost growth is an assumption, not a projection of local tax rules.

Loan term (years)Annual property tax (% of purchase price)Home insurance per month ($)Annual maintenance (% of purchase price)HOA fees per month ($)Mortgage insurance per month ($)Buying costs (% of purchase price)Selling costs (% of sale price)Assumed yearly rent increase (%)Assumed yearly increase in recurring costs (%)Alternative annual return on your cash (%)

Current cost assumptions: 1.2% property tax per year, $250 insurance per month, 1% annual upkeep, $0 HOA per month, 2% buying costs and 5% selling costs. Loan term: 30 years.

Build your comparison

Enter a home price and comparable rent, or use the local benchmarks above.

Start with your budget

What price fits your monthly limit and cash?

Uses the down payment, financing, taxes, upkeep, insurance, HOA and buying fees above. Enter cash set aside for the purchase after keeping your emergency reserves. This estimates a spending limit, not lender approval.

Monthly ownership budget ($)Cash available for the purchase ($)

Enter both budgets and valid cost assumptions to calculate a price limit. Mortgage insurance must be specified when required above.

Explore mortgage rates and purchasing power over time

Freddie Mac PMMS, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2,894 weekly observations through 2026-09-10. This national conforming-loan benchmark is not a quote for a Bay Area jumbo borrower. The method changed on November 17, 2022.

Mortgage history year

6.76% on 2026-09-10, the last available observation in 2026. At that fixed rate a $100,000, 30-year loan has a $649 monthly principal-and-interest payment, before all other costs.

National 30-year mortgage rate history

Annual interest rate, percent. 1971-04 to 2026-09.

Monthly average of observed weekly rates 6.7%

View exact values (666 periods)

National 30-year mortgage rate history: percent; missing values are unavailable
Month	Monthly average of observed weekly rates
2026-09	6.73%
2026-08	6.67%
2026-07	6.54%
2026-06	6.49%
2026-05	6.44%
2026-04	6.33%
2026-03	6.18%
2026-02	6.05%
2026-01	6.10%
2025-12	6.19%
2025-11	6.24%
2025-10	6.25%
2025-09	6.35%
2025-08	6.59%
2025-07	6.72%
2025-06	6.82%
2025-05	6.82%
2025-04	6.72%
2025-03	6.65%
2025-02	6.84%
2025-01	6.96%
2024-12	6.71%
2024-11	6.80%
2024-10	6.43%
2024-09	6.18%
2024-08	6.50%
2024-07	6.85%
2024-06	6.92%
2024-05	7.06%
2024-04	6.99%
2024-03	6.82%
2024-02	6.78%
2024-01	6.64%
2023-12	6.81%
2023-11	7.44%
2023-10	7.62%
2023-09	7.20%
2023-08	7.07%
2023-07	6.84%
2023-06	6.71%
2023-05	6.42%
2023-04	6.34%
2023-03	6.54%
2023-02	6.26%
2023-01	6.27%
2022-12	6.36%
2022-11	6.80%
2022-10	6.90%
2022-09	6.11%
2022-08	5.22%
2022-07	5.41%
2022-06	5.52%
2022-05	5.23%
2022-04	4.98%
2022-03	4.17%
2022-02	3.76%
2022-01	3.45%
2021-12	3.10%
2021-11	3.07%
2021-10	3.07%
2021-09	2.90%
2021-08	2.84%
2021-07	2.87%
2021-06	2.98%
2021-05	2.96%
2021-04	3.06%
2021-03	3.08%
2021-02	2.81%
2021-01	2.73%
2020-12	2.68%
2020-11	2.77%
2020-10	2.83%
2020-09	2.89%
2020-08	2.94%
2020-07	3.02%
2020-06	3.16%
2020-05	3.23%
2020-04	3.31%
2020-03	3.45%
2020-02	3.46%
2020-01	3.62%
2019-12	3.72%
2019-11	3.69%
2019-10	3.69%
2019-09	3.61%
2019-08	3.62%
2019-07	3.77%
2019-06	3.80%
2019-05	4.07%
2019-04	4.14%
2019-03	4.26%
2019-02	4.37%
2019-01	4.46%
2018-12	4.64%
2018-11	4.87%
2018-10	4.83%
2018-09	4.63%
2018-08	4.55%
2018-07	4.53%
2018-06	4.57%
2018-05	4.59%
2018-04	4.47%
2018-03	4.44%
2018-02	4.33%
2018-01	4.03%
2017-12	3.95%
2017-11	3.92%
2017-10	3.90%
2017-09	3.81%
2017-08	3.88%
2017-07	3.97%
2017-06	3.90%
2017-05	4.01%
2017-04	4.04%
2017-03	4.20%
2017-02	4.17%
2017-01	4.15%
2016-12	4.20%
2016-11	3.77%
2016-10	3.47%
2016-09	3.46%
2016-08	3.44%
2016-07	3.44%
2016-06	3.57%
2016-05	3.60%
2016-04	3.60%
2016-03	3.69%
2016-02	3.66%
2016-01	3.87%
2015-12	3.96%
2015-11	3.94%
2015-10	3.80%
2015-09	3.89%
2015-08	3.90%
2015-07	4.05%
2015-06	3.98%
2015-05	3.84%
2015-04	3.67%
2015-03	3.77%
2015-02	3.71%
2015-01	3.67%
2014-12	3.86%
2014-11	4.00%
2014-10	4.04%
2014-09	4.16%
2014-08	4.12%
2014-07	4.13%
2014-06	4.16%
2014-05	4.19%
2014-04	4.34%
2014-03	4.34%
2014-02	4.30%
2014-01	4.43%
2013-12	4.46%
2013-11	4.25%
2013-10	4.19%
2013-09	4.49%
2013-08	4.46%
2013-07	4.37%
2013-06	4.07%
2013-05	3.54%
2013-04	3.45%
2013-03	3.57%
2013-02	3.53%
2013-01	3.41%
2012-12	3.35%
2012-11	3.35%
2012-10	3.38%
2012-09	3.50%
2012-08	3.60%
2012-07	3.55%
2012-06	3.67%
2012-05	3.80%
2012-04	3.91%
2012-03	3.95%
2012-02	3.89%
2012-01	3.92%
2011-12	3.96%
2011-11	3.99%
2011-10	4.07%
2011-09	4.11%
2011-08	4.27%
2011-07	4.54%
2011-06	4.51%
2011-05	4.64%
2011-04	4.84%
2011-03	4.84%
2011-02	4.95%
2011-01	4.75%
2010-12	4.71%
2010-11	4.30%
2010-10	4.23%
2010-09	4.35%
2010-08	4.43%
2010-07	4.56%
2010-06	4.74%
2010-05	4.89%
2010-04	5.10%
2010-03	4.97%
2010-02	4.99%
2010-01	5.03%
2009-12	4.93%
2009-11	4.88%
2009-10	4.95%
2009-09	5.06%
2009-08	5.19%
2009-07	5.22%
2009-06	5.42%
2009-05	4.86%
2009-04	4.81%
2009-03	5.00%
2009-02	5.13%
2009-01	5.05%
2008-12	5.29%
2008-11	6.09%
2008-10	6.20%
2008-09	6.04%
2008-08	6.48%
2008-07	6.43%
2008-06	6.32%
2008-05	6.04%
2008-04	5.92%
2008-03	5.97%
2008-02	5.92%
2008-01	5.76%
2007-12	6.10%
2007-11	6.21%
2007-10	6.38%
2007-09	6.38%
2007-08	6.57%
2007-07	6.70%
2007-06	6.66%
2007-05	6.26%
2007-04	6.18%
2007-03	6.16%
2007-02	6.29%
2007-01	6.22%
2006-12	6.13%
2006-11	6.24%
2006-10	6.36%
2006-09	6.40%
2006-08	6.52%
2006-07	6.76%
2006-06	6.68%
2006-05	6.60%
2006-04	6.51%
2006-03	6.32%
2006-02	6.25%
2006-01	6.15%
2005-12	6.27%
2005-11	6.33%
2005-10	6.06%
2005-09	5.77%
2005-08	5.82%
2005-07	5.70%
2005-06	5.58%
2005-05	5.72%
2005-04	5.86%
2005-03	5.93%
2005-02	5.63%
2005-01	5.71%
2004-12	5.75%
2004-11	5.73%
2004-10	5.72%
2004-09	5.75%
2004-08	5.87%
2004-07	6.06%
2004-06	6.29%
2004-05	6.27%
2004-04	5.83%
2004-03	5.45%
2004-02	5.63%
2004-01	5.71%
2003-12	5.88%
2003-11	5.93%
2003-10	5.95%
2003-09	6.15%
2003-08	6.26%
2003-07	5.63%
2003-06	5.23%
2003-05	5.48%
2003-04	5.81%
2003-03	5.75%
2003-02	5.84%
2003-01	5.92%
2002-12	6.05%
2002-11	6.07%
2002-10	6.11%
2002-09	6.09%
2002-08	6.29%
2002-07	6.49%
2002-06	6.65%
2002-05	6.81%
2002-04	6.99%
2002-03	7.01%
2002-02	6.89%
2002-01	7.00%
2001-12	7.07%
2001-11	6.66%
2001-10	6.62%
2001-09	6.82%
2001-08	6.95%
2001-07	7.13%
2001-06	7.16%
2001-05	7.14%
2001-04	7.08%
2001-03	6.95%
2001-02	7.05%
2001-01	7.03%
2000-12	7.38%
2000-11	7.75%
2000-10	7.79%
2000-09	7.91%
2000-08	8.03%
2000-07	8.15%
2000-06	8.29%
2000-05	8.51%
2000-04	8.15%
2000-03	8.24%
2000-02	8.33%
2000-01	8.21%
1999-12	7.91%
1999-11	7.74%
1999-10	7.85%
1999-09	7.82%
1999-08	7.94%
1999-07	7.63%
1999-06	7.55%
1999-05	7.15%
1999-04	6.92%
1999-03	7.04%
1999-02	6.81%
1999-01	6.79%
1998-12	6.74%
1998-11	6.87%
1998-10	6.71%
1998-09	6.72%
1998-08	6.92%
1998-07	6.95%
1998-06	7.00%
1998-05	7.14%
1998-04	7.14%
1998-03	7.13%
1998-02	7.04%
1998-01	6.99%
1997-12	7.10%
1997-11	7.21%
1997-10	7.29%
1997-09	7.43%
1997-08	7.48%
1997-07	7.50%
1997-06	7.69%
1997-05	7.94%
1997-04	8.14%
1997-03	7.90%
1997-02	7.65%
1997-01	7.82%
1996-12	7.60%
1996-11	7.62%
1996-10	7.92%
1996-09	8.23%
1996-08	8.00%
1996-07	8.25%
1996-06	8.32%
1996-05	8.07%
1996-04	7.93%
1996-03	7.62%
1996-02	7.08%
1996-01	7.03%
1995-12	7.20%
1995-11	7.38%
1995-10	7.47%
1995-09	7.64%
1995-08	7.86%
1995-07	7.61%
1995-06	7.57%
1995-05	7.96%
1995-04	8.32%
1995-03	8.46%
1995-02	8.83%
1995-01	9.15%
1994-12	9.20%
1994-11	9.17%
1994-10	8.93%
1994-09	8.64%
1994-08	8.51%
1994-07	8.61%
1994-06	8.40%
1994-05	8.60%
1994-04	8.32%
1994-03	7.67%
1994-02	7.15%
1994-01	7.06%
1993-12	7.17%
1993-11	7.16%
1993-10	6.83%
1993-09	6.92%
1993-08	7.11%
1993-07	7.21%
1993-06	7.42%
1993-05	7.46%
1993-04	7.47%
1993-03	7.50%
1993-02	7.68%
1993-01	7.99%
1992-12	8.21%
1992-11	8.30%
1992-10	8.09%
1992-09	7.92%
1992-08	7.97%
1992-07	8.13%
1992-06	8.51%
1992-05	8.67%
1992-04	8.85%
1992-03	8.93%
1992-02	8.76%
1992-01	8.43%
1991-12	8.50%
1991-11	8.71%
1991-10	8.86%
1991-09	9.01%
1991-08	9.24%
1991-07	9.57%
1991-06	9.62%
1991-05	9.47%
1991-04	9.49%
1991-03	9.50%
1991-02	9.37%
1991-01	9.64%
1990-12	9.67%
1990-11	10.01%
1990-10	10.18%
1990-09	10.18%
1990-08	10.10%
1990-07	10.04%
1990-06	10.16%
1990-05	10.48%
1990-04	10.37%
1990-03	10.27%
1990-02	10.20%
1990-01	9.89%
1989-12	9.74%
1989-11	9.77%
1989-10	9.95%
1989-09	10.13%
1989-08	9.98%
1989-07	9.88%
1989-06	10.20%
1989-05	10.77%
1989-04	11.05%
1989-03	11.03%
1989-02	10.64%
1989-01	10.73%
1988-12	10.61%
1988-11	10.27%
1988-10	10.30%
1988-09	10.48%
1988-08	10.60%
1988-07	10.43%
1988-06	10.46%
1988-05	10.46%
1988-04	10.20%
1988-03	9.93%
1988-02	9.89%
1988-01	10.38%
1987-12	10.64%
1987-11	10.65%
1987-10	11.26%
1987-09	10.89%
1987-08	10.33%
1987-07	10.28%
1987-06	10.54%
1987-05	10.60%
1987-04	9.83%
1987-03	9.04%
1987-02	9.08%
1987-01	9.20%
1986-12	9.31%
1986-11	9.70%
1986-10	9.97%
1986-09	10.01%
1986-08	10.20%
1986-07	10.51%
1986-06	10.68%
1986-05	10.14%
1986-04	9.94%
1986-03	10.08%
1986-02	10.71%
1986-01	10.89%
1985-12	11.26%
1985-11	11.78%
1985-10	12.13%
1985-09	12.19%
1985-08	12.19%
1985-07	12.03%
1985-06	12.21%
1985-05	12.91%
1985-04	13.19%
1985-03	13.17%
1985-02	12.92%
1985-01	13.07%
1984-12	13.18%
1984-11	13.64%
1984-10	14.13%
1984-09	14.35%
1984-08	14.47%
1984-07	14.67%
1984-06	14.42%
1984-05	13.94%
1984-04	13.65%
1984-03	13.39%
1984-02	13.23%
1984-01	13.37%
1983-12	13.42%
1983-11	13.44%
1983-10	13.53%
1983-09	13.73%
1983-08	13.81%
1983-07	13.42%
1983-06	12.87%
1983-05	12.63%
1983-04	12.78%
1983-03	12.80%
1983-02	13.04%
1983-01	13.25%
1982-12	13.62%
1982-11	13.82%
1982-10	14.61%
1982-09	15.43%
1982-08	16.27%
1982-07	16.82%
1982-06	16.70%
1982-05	16.68%
1982-04	16.89%
1982-03	17.16%
1982-02	17.60%
1982-01	17.48%
1981-12	16.95%
1981-11	17.83%
1981-10	18.45%
1981-09	18.16%
1981-08	17.29%
1981-07	16.83%
1981-06	16.70%
1981-05	16.40%
1981-04	15.58%
1981-03	15.40%
1981-02	15.13%
1981-01	14.90%
1980-12	14.79%
1980-11	14.21%
1980-10	13.79%
1980-09	13.20%
1980-08	12.56%
1980-07	12.19%
1980-06	12.71%
1980-05	14.26%
1980-04	16.33%
1980-03	15.28%
1980-02	13.04%
1980-01	12.88%
1979-12	12.90%
1979-11	12.83%
1979-10	11.64%
1979-09	11.30%
1979-08	11.09%
1979-07	11.09%
1979-06	11.04%
1979-05	10.69%
1979-04	10.50%
1979-03	10.43%
1979-02	10.41%
1979-01	10.39%
1978-12	10.35%
1978-11	10.11%
1978-10	9.86%
1978-09	9.76%
1978-08	9.79%
1978-07	9.74%
1978-06	9.71%
1978-05	9.57%
1978-04	9.36%
1978-03	9.20%
1978-02	9.14%
1978-01	9.02%
1977-12	8.96%
1977-11	8.92%
1977-10	8.92%
1977-09	8.90%
1977-08	8.94%
1977-07	8.94%
1977-06	8.86%
1977-05	8.83%
1977-04	8.75%
1977-03	8.69%
1977-02	8.67%
1977-01	8.72%
1976-12	8.79%
1976-11	8.81%
1976-10	8.93%
1976-09	8.98%
1976-08	9.00%
1976-07	8.93%
1976-06	8.85%
1976-05	8.77%
1976-04	8.73%
1976-03	8.75%
1976-02	8.81%
1976-01	9.02%
1975-12	9.10%
1975-11	9.14%
1975-10	9.22%
1975-09	9.13%
1975-08	8.94%
1975-07	8.89%
1975-06	8.89%
1975-05	8.91%
1975-04	8.82%
1975-03	8.90%
1975-02	9.11%
1975-01	9.43%
1974-12	9.62%
1974-11	9.79%
1974-10	9.98%
1974-09	9.96%
1974-08	9.59%
1974-07	9.28%
1974-06	9.09%
1974-05	8.97%
1974-04	8.58%
1974-03	8.41%
1974-02	8.46%
1974-01	8.54%
1973-12	8.54%
1973-11	8.58%
1973-10	8.77%
1973-09	8.81%
1973-08	8.50%
1973-07	8.05%
1973-06	7.73%
1973-05	7.65%
1973-04	7.54%
1973-03	7.46%
1973-02	7.44%
1973-01	7.44%
1972-12	7.44%
1972-11	7.43%
1972-10	7.42%
1972-09	7.42%
1972-08	7.40%
1972-07	7.39%
1972-06	7.37%
1972-05	7.37%
1972-04	7.29%
1972-03	7.30%
1972-02	7.32%
1972-01	7.44%
1971-12	7.48%
1971-11	7.55%
1971-10	7.63%
1971-09	7.69%
1971-08	7.70%
1971-07	7.60%
1971-06	7.53%
1971-05	7.43%
1971-04	7.31%

Monthly chart values average the observations dated in each month; the latest month can be partial. These are current-vintage data. A historical rate applied to today’s price is a scenario, not a reconstruction of historical affordability.

Explore the city-wide rent history

Zillow Observed Rent Index, all rental homes and multifamily, smoothed and not seasonally adjusted. Missing months remain missing. A rent index divided by a sale-price median is not a matched-property rental yield.

Rent observation month

Rental benchmarks for Jul 2026
City	Monthly rental benchmark
Daly City	$2,765
Pacifica	$3,582
San Bruno	$3,338

City-wide rents over time

Nominal dollars. Each series covers the named geography. 2019-01 to 2026-07.

Daly City $2.8KPacifica $3.6KSan Bruno $3.3K

View exact values (91 periods)

City-wide rents over time: nominal USD; missing values are unavailable
Month	Daly City	Pacifica	San Bruno
2026-07	$2,765	$3,582	$3,338
2026-06	$2,748	$3,485	$3,312
2026-05	$2,721	$3,521	$3,260
2026-04	$2,708	$3,423	$3,173
2026-03	$2,691	$3,445	$3,156
2026-02	$2,633	$3,412	$3,128
2026-01	$2,595	$3,465	$3,174
2025-12	$2,577	$3,436	$3,167
2025-11	$2,600	$3,405	$3,182
2025-10	$2,596	$3,382	$3,123
2025-09	$2,590	$3,363	$3,101
2025-08	$2,586	$3,378	$3,090
2025-07	$2,573	$3,368	$3,109
2025-06	$2,580	$3,314	$3,096
2025-05	$2,555	$3,280	$3,028
2025-04	$2,535	$3,247	$3,001
2025-03	$2,515	$3,241	$2,983
2025-02	$2,504	$3,200	$3,003
2025-01	$2,498	$3,146	$3,035
2024-12	$2,469	$3,205	$3,021
2024-11	$2,480	$3,253	$3,014
2024-10	$2,484	$3,253	$2,977
2024-09	$2,499	$3,189	$2,981
2024-08	$2,506	$3,164	$2,966
2024-07	$2,496	$3,187	$2,954
2024-06	$2,506	$3,220	$2,939
2024-05	$2,495	$3,181	$2,955
2024-04	$2,496	$3,118	$2,953
2024-03	$2,484	$3,076	$2,944
2024-02	$2,475	$3,095	$2,917
2024-01	$2,476	$3,114	$2,941
2023-12	$2,469	$3,107	$2,947
2023-11	$2,477	$3,122	$2,942
2023-10	$2,498	$3,136	$2,873
2023-09	$2,484	$3,158	$2,866
2023-08	$2,492	$3,113	$2,872
2023-07	$2,458	$3,094	$2,889
2023-06	$2,452	$3,072	$2,873
2023-05	$2,418	$3,063	$2,884
2023-04	$2,478	$3,058	$2,896
2023-03	$2,478	$3,078	$2,897
2023-02	$2,479	$3,091	$2,893
2023-01	$2,432	$3,084	$2,857
2022-12	$2,427	$3,083	$2,854
2022-11	$2,420	$3,130	$2,834
2022-10	$2,400	$3,133	$2,872
2022-09	$2,402	$3,159	$2,877
2022-08	$2,409	$3,069	$2,893
2022-07	$2,391	$3,078	$2,881
2022-06	$2,390	$3,025	$2,840
2022-05	$2,395	$3,047	$2,814
2022-04	$2,405	$3,033	$2,803
2022-03	$2,410	$3,051	$2,786
2022-02	$2,379	$3,041	$2,757
2022-01	$2,375	$3,032	$2,736
2021-12	$2,318	$2,982	$2,734
2021-11	$2,296	$3,011	$2,729
2021-10	$2,267	$2,990	$2,700
2021-09	$2,273	$3,011	$2,703
2021-08	$2,279	$2,948	$2,692
2021-07	$2,282	$2,889	$2,678
2021-06	$2,274	$2,840	$2,662
2021-05	$2,218	$2,840	$2,639
2021-04	$2,191	$2,865	$2,595
2021-03	$2,186	$2,861	$2,566
2021-02	$2,213	$2,840	$2,569
2021-01	$2,195	$2,797	$2,614
2020-12	$2,192	$2,824	$2,661
2020-11	$2,202	$2,848	$2,669
2020-10	$2,251	$2,928	$2,709
2020-09	$2,251	$2,939	$2,727
2020-08	$2,274	$2,970	$2,772
2020-07	$2,289	$2,995	$2,786
2020-06	$2,348	$3,015	$2,814
2020-05	$2,372	$3,040	$2,830
2020-04	$2,364	$3,057	$2,834
2020-03	$2,337	$3,068	$2,815
2020-02	$2,290	$3,017	$2,821
2020-01	$2,308	$2,974	$2,812
2019-12	$2,262	$2,944	$2,826
2019-11	$2,326	Unavailable	$2,811
2019-10	$2,297	$3,051	$2,848
2019-09	$2,346	$3,016	$2,853
2019-08	$2,292	$3,000	$2,862
2019-07	$2,330	$2,928	$2,831
2019-06	$2,318	$2,978	$2,827
2019-05	$2,324	$2,976	$2,806
2019-04	$2,271	$2,966	$2,785
2019-03	$2,266	$3,013	$2,786
2019-02	$2,268	$2,992	$2,783
2019-01	$2,252	$3,013	$2,770

Why rents and ownership costs belong in the lab

They make the price of a home easier to interpret. They also give us a separate longer-term hypothesis to test. Your cost assumptions do not become an appreciation forecast or a weight in the forecast mixer.

Research on prices and rents Research on ownership cost Data coverage and limits

Jobs & housing · structural evidence

Is housing keeping up with local growth?

See how employment and the number of homes changed. Housing-stock totals let us compare construction across cities of different sizes.

Supply comparison year

Housing: January 1. Jobs: Q2 snapshot. Completions: full calendar year.All housing types. Job history currently ends in 2023.

2023 snapshots and three-year growth through 2023. The jobs and stock reference months differ, as labeled.
Measure	Daly City	Pacifica	San Bruno
Total homes · Jan 1, 2023	34,049	14,749	16,732
Housing-stock growth · Jan 2020–Jan 2023	+1.9%	+0.7%	+0.7%
Workplace jobs · Q2 2023	20,560	5,444	14,821
Job growth · Q2 2020–Q2 2023	+20.2%	+19.7%	+18.3%
Completed homes during 2023	38	48	9
Completions per 100 homes present at the start of the year	0.11	0.33	0.05

Completions include replacement construction. “2 completions per 100 homes” does not mean the stock grew 2%. Workplace jobs are not resident households.

Housing stock over time

All series start at 100 in 2011. 2011 to 2023.

Daly City 104.5Pacifica 101.4San Bruno 107.5

View exact values (13 periods)

Housing stock over time: homes; missing values are unavailable
January 1 snapshot	Daly City	Pacifica	San Bruno
2023	34,049	14,749	16,732
2022	33,934	14,678	16,696
2021	33,762	14,669	16,641
2020	33,418	14,645	16,619
2019	33,354	14,622	16,489
2018	33,247	14,606	16,430
2017	33,080	14,601	16,384
2016	33,023	14,625	16,327
2015	32,975	14,606	16,279
2014	32,972	14,594	15,907
2013	32,717	14,578	15,855
2012	32,700	14,559	15,784
2011	32,596	14,544	15,562

Workplace jobs over time

All series start at 100 in 2012. 2012 to 2023.

Daly City 106.3Pacifica 123.0San Bruno 116.5

View exact values (12 periods)

Workplace jobs over time: jobs; missing values are unavailable
Q2 snapshot year	Daly City	Pacifica	San Bruno
2023	20,560	5,444	14,821
2022	19,430	5,298	14,415
2021	17,685	4,735	12,867
2020	17,099	4,548	12,533
2019	19,616	5,136	16,541
2018	19,353	4,874	16,589
2017	19,237	4,725	17,103
2016	19,399	4,810	16,447
2015	19,271	4,746	14,484
2014	20,035	4,479	12,309
2013	19,404	4,480	12,706
2012	19,345	4,427	12,718

The idea we’re testing

Stronger demand may translate into higher prices when housing responds slowly. A useful test needs both sides of that relationship. Low construction on its own can also reflect weak demand.

Evidence, gaps and the next test

Federal Reserve research on jobs and construction constraints supports studying the interaction. It does not establish a forecast for these cities.

The new stock history closes a denominator gap. The proposed multi-year forecasting study still has too few mature observations under its source-lag assumptions. Two completion years remain withheld: San Bruno 2020 and South San Francisco 2024. We need documented historical availability and broader coverage before a new predictive test.

DOF estimates include vacant homes and revisions. We use January snapshots consistently and reconcile the overlapping April 2020 benchmarks. Geography definitions across DOF, Census and city completion reports also need care. All charts are reconstructed from the retained releases.

Housing-stock sources Jobs and completion sources Download the evidence

Price forecasts · experimental

Explore a thesis, then check its record

The current annual forecasts use three price and tax-base signals. None earned selection over matching the county. The new Market outlook predicts contract time in days. It has its own weights and track record; cost scenarios and jobs/housing evidence also answer different questions.

See each family’s research and validation status →

Understand the models, then choose weights

These three models test price and tax-base signals. Each learns a relationship from earlier data, then estimates the city's next-year home-value growth relative to San Mateo County. An input is not itself a prediction.

None passed the original selection test. “Match the county” remains the selected baseline. The models share data and a study design; agreement is not independent confirmation.

Momentum · experimental

Recent price performance

Does how a city performed recently help predict its next year?

What it measures: The city's home-value growth over the past 12 months, minus San Mateo County's growth over those same months.
Made-up example · input only: City values rise 12% and county values rise 8%. The input is +4 percentage points of recent outperformance.
How to interpret it: The fitted relationship can favor a reversal. This model does not simply predict that recent winners keep winning; “Repeat recent relative growth” is the separate rule that does that.

Exact input calculation and earlier test

City 12-month percentage change − county 12-month percentage change.

Average absolute prediction error in the earlier model-selection test: 1.601 percentage points. County baseline: 1.346. Lower is better; selection also required consistency across years.

Momentum weight (%)

Relative value · experimental

Price gap versus history

Does a change in a city's usual price relationship to the county help predict its next year?

What it measures: Today's city-to-county home-value ratio, compared with its average over the preceding 60 months.
Made-up example · input only: The city's index is 80% of the county index today, versus an average of 88% previously. The model's gap input is +10%: 88 ÷ 80 − 1.
How to interpret it: This measures relative price level, not relative growth or affordability. A positive gap is not proof of a bargain and does not imply a 10% price rise.

Exact input calculation and earlier test

100 × (average of the preceding 60 monthly city/county ratios ÷ current ratio − 1). The current month is excluded from the average.

Average absolute prediction error in the earlier model-selection test: 1.398 percentage points. County baseline: 1.346. Lower is better; selection also required consistency across years.

Relative value weight (%)

Assessment growth · experimental

Taxable property growth

Does growth in the taxable property base help predict home-value growth?

What it measures: Three-year growth in the city's net assessment roll, minus the county's growth. The roll is the taxable value of property, across property classes.
Made-up example · input only: The city's taxable property total grows 12% over three years and the county's grows 8%. The input is +4 percentage points.
How to interpret it: Tax rules and multiple property classes affect this total. It is not a home-price index, city revenue, or a direct measure of jobs or commercial growth.

Exact input calculation and earlier test

City three-year net assessment-roll percentage change − county change. Use January of the year before the July feature cutoff, with a three-year lookback. This assumed lag is not verified historical publication timing.

Average absolute prediction error in the earlier model-selection test: 1.392 percentage points. County baseline: 1.346. Lower is better; selection also required consistency across years.

Assessment growth weight (%)

Weights total 0%. Set whole percentages totaling 100% to see a blend.

A 50% weight means half of that model's prediction contributes to the mix. It does not mean a 50% chance the model is right. Zero removes a model; changing weights does not retrain it. The exact equal-weight average stays visible as a comparison.

Choose a single model or set weights totaling 100%.

Methods, versions and source files

Component forecasts were issued 2026-09-15T02:02:10Z. model-lab-v1 uses the original housing-screen-v1 rules and data. Every model shares the same target, benchmark, home type, cutoff and horizon. A missing selected prediction withholds the blend; no weight is silently reassigned.

Earlier validation selected the county baseline. The original decision and paper record stay unchanged. Scores here are recomputed from blended predictions, not averaged component errors.

Download all component predictions, historical outcomes and source hashes · Read the original track record

Source manifest SHA-256: 46f922fcefd73314d74781232e4679632900b1fe429ec6af31c61ab00df388d7

Understand the market behind your shortlist.

Choose your cities

How competitive is the market?

Daly City

Pacifica

San Bruno

Homes available over time

Time to reach a contract

Use this when you review a listing

Will homes take longer to reach a contract?

One clear target: days from listing to contract

Current pace

Same season

Contract-time trend

Supply & demand

Daly City

Pacifica

San Bruno

How large were the misses?

Daly City: scenario versus observed contract time

October–December 2026: keep the prediction, check the outcome

What could owning cost you?

Local benchmarks to help you start

Daly City

Pacifica

San Bruno

Your assumptions

Build your comparison

What price fits your monthly limit and cash?

National 30-year mortgage rate history

City-wide rents over time

Why rents and ownership costs belong in the lab

Is housing keeping up with local growth?

Housing stock over time

Workplace jobs over time

The idea we’re testing

Explore a thesis, then check its record

Understand the models, then choose weights

Recent price performance

Price gap versus history

Taxable property growth