Model Lab · evidence for your home search

Understand the market behind your shortlist.

Compare buying conditions, test your budget, and explore model predictions alongside their actual outcomes.

Market conditions · observed history

How competitive is the market?

Compare homes for sale and time to reach a contract. Look at the same season a year earlier to put today’s conditions in context.

Latest captured market, rent and mortgage update

Checking the source archive… The reviewed history below keeps its published dates.

Market yearPeriod ending

Jun 2026–Aug 2026Three-month rolling window

Explore the history

Mar 2012Aug 2026

Single-family homes · Jun 2026–Aug 2026. Revised data retrieved 2026-09-16; this does not recreate what was published at the time.

Daly City

Less inventory and faster contracts

Homes for sale at period end: 33
Median days to a contract: 16
Closed sales over three months: 72
Median sale price: $1,299,239

See the year-earlier comparison

Aug 2026 versus Aug 2025; each sales measure spans three months.
Measure	Selected period	Year earlier
Inventory	33	34
Days to contract	16	17
Closed sales	72	73
New listings	89	84
Pending sales	72	77

Homes available over time

Homes counted in each named geography. 2012-03 to 2026-08.

Daly City 33

View exact values (174 periods)

Homes available over time: homes; missing values are unavailable
Month	Daly City
2026-08	33
2026-07	36
2026-06	27
2026-05	24
2026-04	25
2026-03	32
2026-02	33
2026-01	19
2025-12	14
2025-11	35
2025-10	36
2025-09	42
2025-08	34
2025-07	37
2025-06	32
2025-05	36
2025-04	37
2025-03	31
2025-02	39
2025-01	24
2024-12	11
2024-11	16
2024-10	24
2024-09	34
2024-08	29
2024-07	30
2024-06	32
2024-05	39
2024-04	26
2024-03	15
2024-02	18
2024-01	20
2023-12	11
2023-11	26
2023-10	27
2023-09	33
2023-08	30
2023-07	24
2023-06	24
2023-05	21
2023-04	26
2023-03	25
2023-02	26
2023-01	30
2022-12	29
2022-11	48
2022-10	60
2022-09	53
2022-08	51
2022-07	50
2022-06	48
2022-05	46
2022-04	24
2022-03	21
2022-02	24
2022-01	17
2021-12	19
2021-11	39
2021-10	39
2021-09	52
2021-08	47
2021-07	41
2021-06	35
2021-05	27
2021-04	27
2021-03	24
2021-02	36
2021-01	29
2020-12	25
2020-11	41
2020-10	60
2020-09	69
2020-08	73
2020-07	72
2020-06	60
2020-05	54
2020-04	50
2020-03	34
2020-02	38
2020-01	15
2019-12	15
2019-11	34
2019-10	53
2019-09	49
2019-08	33
2019-07	37
2019-06	38
2019-05	36
2019-04	34
2019-03	26
2019-02	29
2019-01	28
2018-12	22
2018-11	31
2018-10	48
2018-09	44
2018-08	34
2018-07	33
2018-06	36
2018-05	25
2018-04	28
2018-03	20
2018-02	23
2018-01	20
2017-12	15
2017-11	27
2017-10	32
2017-09	33
2017-08	26
2017-07	33
2017-06	37
2017-05	40
2017-04	35
2017-03	39
2017-02	28
2017-01	23
2016-12	35
2016-11	48
2016-10	47
2016-09	48
2016-08	46
2016-07	43
2016-06	41
2016-05	27
2016-04	35
2016-03	32
2016-02	32
2016-01	27
2015-12	27
2015-11	34
2015-10	44
2015-09	44
2015-08	47
2015-07	44
2015-06	36
2015-05	36
2015-04	32
2015-03	39
2015-02	35
2015-01	37
2014-12	33
2014-11	50
2014-10	49
2014-09	54
2014-08	51
2014-07	51
2014-06	48
2014-05	42
2014-04	37
2014-03	36
2014-02	46
2014-01	39
2013-12	35
2013-11	49
2013-10	62
2013-09	67
2013-08	62
2013-07	53
2013-06	55
2013-05	58
2013-04	47
2013-03	49
2013-02	36
2013-01	40
2012-12	27
2012-11	41
2012-10	51
2012-09	52
2012-08	55
2012-07	61
2012-06	68
2012-05	57
2012-04	65
2012-03	68

Time to reach a contract

Median days from listing to contract for the named series. 2012-03 to 2026-08.

Daly City 16

View exact values (174 periods)

Time to reach a contract: days; missing values are unavailable
Month	Daly City
2026-08	16
2026-07	14
2026-06	13
2026-05	14
2026-04	13
2026-03	15
2026-02	15
2026-01	18
2025-12	18
2025-11	22
2025-10	22
2025-09	21
2025-08	17
2025-07	14
2025-06	14
2025-05	14
2025-04	13
2025-03	13
2025-02	15
2025-01	16
2024-12	17
2024-11	18
2024-10	21
2024-09	21
2024-08	16
2024-07	15
2024-06	14
2024-05	13
2024-04	13
2024-03	15
2024-02	15
2024-01	21
2023-12	21
2023-11	20
2023-10	15
2023-09	14
2023-08	13
2023-07	13
2023-06	12
2023-05	13
2023-04	16
2023-03	19
2023-02	40
2023-01	40
2022-12	38
2022-11	27
2022-10	25
2022-09	16
2022-08	16
2022-07	14
2022-06	12
2022-05	11
2022-04	10
2022-03	11
2022-02	14
2022-01	18
2021-12	17
2021-11	14
2021-10	13
2021-09	13
2021-08	12
2021-07	11
2021-06	11
2021-05	12
2021-04	13
2021-03	14
2021-02	26
2021-01	28
2020-12	29
2020-11	26
2020-10	29
2020-09	29
2020-08	28
2020-07	32
2020-06	31
2020-05	26
2020-04	15
2020-03	20
2020-02	24
2020-01	30
2019-12	24
2019-11	17
2019-10	17
2019-09	22
2019-08	18
2019-07	18
2019-06	18
2019-05	20
2019-04	19
2019-03	20
2019-02	28
2019-01	34
2018-12	27
2018-11	20
2018-10	20
2018-09	21
2018-08	18
2018-07	16
2018-06	15
2018-05	16
2018-04	16
2018-03	17
2018-02	19
2018-01	17
2017-12	18
2017-11	18
2017-10	19
2017-09	17
2017-08	18
2017-07	18
2017-06	20
2017-05	20
2017-04	22
2017-03	32
2017-02	35
2017-01	35
2016-12	26
2016-11	19
2016-10	19
2016-09	19
2016-08	20
2016-07	23
2016-06	23
2016-05	24
2016-04	20
2016-03	27
2016-02	28
2016-01	27
2015-12	24
2015-11	19
2015-10	17
2015-09	17
2015-08	16
2015-07	16
2015-06	16
2015-05	14
2015-04	16
2015-03	20
2015-02	40
2015-01	35
2014-12	26
2014-11	21
2014-10	18
2014-09	16
2014-08	15
2014-07	15
2014-06	18
2014-05	17
2014-04	17
2014-03	18
2014-02	29
2014-01	29
2013-12	25
2013-11	22
2013-10	19
2013-09	19
2013-08	16
2013-07	18
2013-06	15
2013-05	15
2013-04	13
2013-03	14
2013-02	15
2013-01	17
2012-12	18
2012-11	18
2012-10	18
2012-09	16
2012-08	18
2012-07	19
2012-06	20
2012-05	24
2012-04	51
2012-03	56

Use this when you review a listing

More available homes and longer marketing times can give you more options to investigate. Ask how the actual property compares with other listings in its price range. These city observations do not predict your offer’s outcome.

What the data and research support

Redfin’s sales and prices cover completed sales; contract time covers homes going under contract. Those populations differ. Inventory is the count at period end. Rolling windows overlap, so adding them would double-count activity. A changing median price can reflect the mix of homes sold.

Year-earlier differences are calculated from retained levels. The two-direction summary appears only when both periods have at least ten closed sales and the two required measures. It describes the observations, with no fitted score or forecast.

Listing behavior motivated this view. The Federal Reserve listing study and buyer-search study use richer inputs and different geographies. This view is not a replication of those forecasts.

Redfin definitions Research and data coverage Download the evidence

Market outlook · experimental

Will homes take longer to reach a contract?

Apply four ways of thinking about the market. Compare what each predicts for the next quarter, then inspect its past misses.

One clear target: days from listing to contract

Longer contract times may give buyers more time to compare listings. This forecasts a city’s median for a calendar quarter, not a particular home’s selling time or price.

No added model earned selection. Same season remains the baseline. See the historical comparison below.

Forecast yearForecast quarter

Q4 2026Frozen on 2026-09-16

Current blend: Same season 100%.

Apply models and adjust their weights

Weights express your scenario. They are normalized to 100%; they are not probabilities. Changing them recomputes the historical comparison too. This experiment is separate from the annual price-forecast weights.

Current pace

Contract time stays at the latest observed pace.

The most recent eligible three-month window.Current pace weight0 (0% of blend)

Same season

Next quarter resembles the same quarter last year.

The same calendar quarter one year earlier. The retained baseline.Same season weight100 (100% of blend)

Contract-time trend

Recent changes in contract speed help explain what comes next.

Changes in contract days over three months and one year; fitted on other California cities.Contract-time trend weight0 (0% of blend)

Supply & demand

Homes available and the flow of new listings and contracts add information.

Contract-time trends, inventory relative to sales, inventory and sales growth, and pending contracts relative to new listings.Supply & demand weight0 (0% of blend)

Daly City

Your scenario · Q4 202618 days

Latest input: 16 days · window ending 2026-08-31. Target: 2026-10-01–2026-12-31.

Check the live outcome record below for progress. The frozen study predictions remain unchanged when you adjust these weights.

See every model’s prediction

Daly City, Q4 2026, median days to contract
Current pace	16 days
Same season	18 days
Contract-time trend	17.9 days
Supply & demand	18.5 days
Equal blend	17.6 days

Latest training outcome: 2026-06-30. 14,606 peer training rows, 49 quarter origins. Inputs stop at 2026-08-31.

How large were the misses?

The selection period chose the baseline. Later history checks that decision without changing it. Both are exploratory replays using today’s revised source history and an assumed one-month reporting allowance.

Evaluation period

Your cities and weights · average miss4.4 days

Same-season average miss · same rows4.4 days

Largest scenario miss21 days

17 comparable city/quarter rows across 17 quarter origins and 1 selected cities. Average miss is mean absolute error in days; it is not a confidence interval.

Daly City: scenario versus observed contract time

Median days from listing to contract for the named series. 2022 Q2 to 2026 Q2.

Your scenario 14Observed 13

View exact values (17 periods)

Daly City: scenario versus observed contract time: days; missing values are unavailable
Quarter	Your scenario	Observed
2026 Q2	14	13
2026 Q1	13	15
2025 Q4	17	18
2025 Q3	21	21
2025 Q2	14	14
2025 Q1	15	13
2024 Q4	21	17
2024 Q3	14	21
2024 Q2	12	14
2024 Q1	19	15
2023 Q4	38	21
2023 Q3	16	14
2023 Q2	12	12
2023 Q1	11	19
2022 Q4	17	38
2022 Q3	13	16
2022 Q2	11	12

The CSV includes the full available replay and forward scenario with your weights. It is a scenario export, not a new registered forecast.

Full study comparison and selection rule

All eight covered cities, single-family homes. Average absolute miss in days.
Model	Selection period	Later replay
Current pace	7 days	5.8 days
Same season	9.8 days	5.2 days
Contract-time trend	7.6 days	5.7 days
Supply & demand	6.6 days	5.3 days
Equal blend	6.7 days	4.7 days

No candidate passed the prespecified sample, improvement and consistency gate. Retain same-season baseline. A candidate must improve average error at least 10% against both simple baselines, beat same season in at least 7 of 12 origins, and meet the minimum local sample. The sample gate passed.

The selection period has 96 comparable rows and 12 origins; later replay has 136 rows and 17 origins. There are no random city-row splits, and training targets end before each input cutoff. Other California cities can still share regional shocks.

Coefficient fitting uses 299 other California cities; our eight cities are evaluated separately. Neighboring markets are correlated, so city counts overstate independent evidence.

The next live check

October–December 2026: keep the prediction, check the outcome

Thirteen city/home-type forecasts were frozen before October 1. Each week, the data worker captures source evidence. After December 31, it locks each first eligible outcome and reports errors. Thin or missing outcomes remain pending.

Checking the capture record…

Capture status and locked outcomes Latest captured observations and sources

Download the study and source references Frozen October–December predictions What remains untested

Source: Redfin Data Center, retrieved 2026-09-16. Contract-time medians and closed-sales counts describe different transaction populations. The ten-sale quality rule is not a calibrated uncertainty claim. Public 2025 outcomes were already inspected; this is not an untouched historical test.

Rent or buy · your cost scenario

What could owning cost you?

Start with a home price and rent for a comparable home. See the monthly budget, equity built through repayments, and how your assumptions change the longer-term comparison.

Local benchmarks to help you start

Sale prices are for single-family homes. Rental benchmarks include all rental housing and multifamily. They describe different populations; use a comparable property’s rent for your decision.

Daly City

$1,299,239Median sale price · Jun 2026–Aug 2026

$2,765 / monthCity-wide rental benchmark · Jul 2026

Your assumptions

Enter your own figures, or use a benchmark above. Inputs stay in this page; they are not sent to the server.

Home price ($)Comparable monthly rent ($)Down payment (%)Mortgage interest rate (%)Years you expect to stayAssumed yearly home-price change (%)

Starting mortgage rate: Freddie Mac’s 6.76% national 30-year average, 2026-09-10. Replace it with your lender’s quote, especially for a jumbo loan or different loan term.

Home-price change is your assumption. The starting 0% holds the price flat. It is not a prediction from the research models.

Edit taxes, fees and other assumptions

Taxes, insurance, upkeep and transaction costs start as examples. Check the actual property and your loan terms. Recurring-cost growth is an assumption, not a projection of local tax rules.

Loan term (years)Annual property tax (% of purchase price)Home insurance per month ($)Annual maintenance (% of purchase price)HOA fees per month ($)Mortgage insurance per month ($)Buying costs (% of purchase price)Selling costs (% of sale price)Assumed yearly rent increase (%)Assumed yearly increase in recurring costs (%)Alternative annual return on your cash (%)

Current cost assumptions: 1.2% property tax per year, $250 insurance per month, 1% annual upkeep, $0 HOA per month, 2% buying costs and 5% selling costs. Loan term: 30 years.

Build your comparison

Enter a home price and comparable rent, or use the local benchmarks above.

Start with your budget

What price fits your monthly limit and cash?

Uses the down payment, financing, taxes, upkeep, insurance, HOA and buying fees above. Enter cash set aside for the purchase after keeping your emergency reserves. This estimates a spending limit, not lender approval.

Monthly ownership budget ($)Cash available for the purchase ($)

Enter both budgets and valid cost assumptions to calculate a price limit. Mortgage insurance must be specified when required above.

Explore mortgage rates and purchasing power over time

Freddie Mac PMMS, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 2,894 weekly observations through 2026-09-10. This national conforming-loan benchmark is not a quote for a Bay Area jumbo borrower. The method changed on November 17, 2022.

Mortgage history year

6.76% on 2026-09-10, the last available observation in 2026. At that fixed rate a $100,000, 30-year loan has a $649 monthly principal-and-interest payment, before all other costs.

National 30-year mortgage rate history

Annual interest rate, percent. 1971-04 to 2026-09.

Monthly average of observed weekly rates 6.7%

View exact values (666 periods)

National 30-year mortgage rate history: percent; missing values are unavailable
Month	Monthly average of observed weekly rates
2026-09	6.73%
2026-08	6.67%
2026-07	6.54%
2026-06	6.49%
2026-05	6.44%
2026-04	6.33%
2026-03	6.18%
2026-02	6.05%
2026-01	6.10%
2025-12	6.19%
2025-11	6.24%
2025-10	6.25%
2025-09	6.35%
2025-08	6.59%
2025-07	6.72%
2025-06	6.82%
2025-05	6.82%
2025-04	6.72%
2025-03	6.65%
2025-02	6.84%
2025-01	6.96%
2024-12	6.71%
2024-11	6.80%
2024-10	6.43%
2024-09	6.18%
2024-08	6.50%
2024-07	6.85%
2024-06	6.92%
2024-05	7.06%
2024-04	6.99%
2024-03	6.82%
2024-02	6.78%
2024-01	6.64%
2023-12	6.81%
2023-11	7.44%
2023-10	7.62%
2023-09	7.20%
2023-08	7.07%
2023-07	6.84%
2023-06	6.71%
2023-05	6.42%
2023-04	6.34%
2023-03	6.54%
2023-02	6.26%
2023-01	6.27%
2022-12	6.36%
2022-11	6.80%
2022-10	6.90%
2022-09	6.11%
2022-08	5.22%
2022-07	5.41%
2022-06	5.52%
2022-05	5.23%
2022-04	4.98%
2022-03	4.17%
2022-02	3.76%
2022-01	3.45%
2021-12	3.10%
2021-11	3.07%
2021-10	3.07%
2021-09	2.90%
2021-08	2.84%
2021-07	2.87%
2021-06	2.98%
2021-05	2.96%
2021-04	3.06%
2021-03	3.08%
2021-02	2.81%
2021-01	2.73%
2020-12	2.68%
2020-11	2.77%
2020-10	2.83%
2020-09	2.89%
2020-08	2.94%
2020-07	3.02%
2020-06	3.16%
2020-05	3.23%
2020-04	3.31%
2020-03	3.45%
2020-02	3.46%
2020-01	3.62%
2019-12	3.72%
2019-11	3.69%
2019-10	3.69%
2019-09	3.61%
2019-08	3.62%
2019-07	3.77%
2019-06	3.80%
2019-05	4.07%
2019-04	4.14%
2019-03	4.26%
2019-02	4.37%
2019-01	4.46%
2018-12	4.64%
2018-11	4.87%
2018-10	4.83%
2018-09	4.63%
2018-08	4.55%
2018-07	4.53%
2018-06	4.57%
2018-05	4.59%
2018-04	4.47%
2018-03	4.44%
2018-02	4.33%
2018-01	4.03%
2017-12	3.95%
2017-11	3.92%
2017-10	3.90%
2017-09	3.81%
2017-08	3.88%
2017-07	3.97%
2017-06	3.90%
2017-05	4.01%
2017-04	4.04%
2017-03	4.20%
2017-02	4.17%
2017-01	4.15%
2016-12	4.20%
2016-11	3.77%
2016-10	3.47%
2016-09	3.46%
2016-08	3.44%
2016-07	3.44%
2016-06	3.57%
2016-05	3.60%
2016-04	3.60%
2016-03	3.69%
2016-02	3.66%
2016-01	3.87%
2015-12	3.96%
2015-11	3.94%
2015-10	3.80%
2015-09	3.89%
2015-08	3.90%
2015-07	4.05%
2015-06	3.98%
2015-05	3.84%
2015-04	3.67%
2015-03	3.77%
2015-02	3.71%
2015-01	3.67%
2014-12	3.86%
2014-11	4.00%
2014-10	4.04%
2014-09	4.16%
2014-08	4.12%
2014-07	4.13%
2014-06	4.16%
2014-05	4.19%
2014-04	4.34%
2014-03	4.34%
2014-02	4.30%
2014-01	4.43%
2013-12	4.46%
2013-11	4.25%
2013-10	4.19%
2013-09	4.49%
2013-08	4.46%
2013-07	4.37%
2013-06	4.07%
2013-05	3.54%
2013-04	3.45%
2013-03	3.57%
2013-02	3.53%
2013-01	3.41%
2012-12	3.35%
2012-11	3.35%
2012-10	3.38%
2012-09	3.50%
2012-08	3.60%
2012-07	3.55%
2012-06	3.67%
2012-05	3.80%
2012-04	3.91%
2012-03	3.95%
2012-02	3.89%
2012-01	3.92%
2011-12	3.96%
2011-11	3.99%
2011-10	4.07%
2011-09	4.11%
2011-08	4.27%
2011-07	4.54%
2011-06	4.51%
2011-05	4.64%
2011-04	4.84%
2011-03	4.84%
2011-02	4.95%
2011-01	4.75%
2010-12	4.71%
2010-11	4.30%
2010-10	4.23%
2010-09	4.35%
2010-08	4.43%
2010-07	4.56%
2010-06	4.74%
2010-05	4.89%
2010-04	5.10%
2010-03	4.97%
2010-02	4.99%
2010-01	5.03%
2009-12	4.93%
2009-11	4.88%
2009-10	4.95%
2009-09	5.06%
2009-08	5.19%
2009-07	5.22%
2009-06	5.42%
2009-05	4.86%
2009-04	4.81%
2009-03	5.00%
2009-02	5.13%
2009-01	5.05%
2008-12	5.29%
2008-11	6.09%
2008-10	6.20%
2008-09	6.04%
2008-08	6.48%
2008-07	6.43%
2008-06	6.32%
2008-05	6.04%
2008-04	5.92%
2008-03	5.97%
2008-02	5.92%
2008-01	5.76%
2007-12	6.10%
2007-11	6.21%
2007-10	6.38%
2007-09	6.38%
2007-08	6.57%
2007-07	6.70%
2007-06	6.66%
2007-05	6.26%
2007-04	6.18%
2007-03	6.16%
2007-02	6.29%
2007-01	6.22%
2006-12	6.13%
2006-11	6.24%
2006-10	6.36%
2006-09	6.40%
2006-08	6.52%
2006-07	6.76%
2006-06	6.68%
2006-05	6.60%
2006-04	6.51%
2006-03	6.32%
2006-02	6.25%
2006-01	6.15%
2005-12	6.27%
2005-11	6.33%
2005-10	6.06%
2005-09	5.77%
2005-08	5.82%
2005-07	5.70%
2005-06	5.58%
2005-05	5.72%
2005-04	5.86%
2005-03	5.93%
2005-02	5.63%
2005-01	5.71%
2004-12	5.75%
2004-11	5.73%
2004-10	5.72%
2004-09	5.75%
2004-08	5.87%
2004-07	6.06%
2004-06	6.29%
2004-05	6.27%
2004-04	5.83%
2004-03	5.45%
2004-02	5.63%
2004-01	5.71%
2003-12	5.88%
2003-11	5.93%
2003-10	5.95%
2003-09	6.15%
2003-08	6.26%
2003-07	5.63%
2003-06	5.23%
2003-05	5.48%
2003-04	5.81%
2003-03	5.75%
2003-02	5.84%
2003-01	5.92%
2002-12	6.05%
2002-11	6.07%
2002-10	6.11%
2002-09	6.09%
2002-08	6.29%
2002-07	6.49%
2002-06	6.65%
2002-05	6.81%
2002-04	6.99%
2002-03	7.01%
2002-02	6.89%
2002-01	7.00%
2001-12	7.07%
2001-11	6.66%
2001-10	6.62%
2001-09	6.82%
2001-08	6.95%
2001-07	7.13%
2001-06	7.16%
2001-05	7.14%
2001-04	7.08%
2001-03	6.95%
2001-02	7.05%
2001-01	7.03%
2000-12	7.38%
2000-11	7.75%
2000-10	7.79%
2000-09	7.91%
2000-08	8.03%
2000-07	8.15%
2000-06	8.29%
2000-05	8.51%
2000-04	8.15%
2000-03	8.24%
2000-02	8.33%
2000-01	8.21%
1999-12	7.91%
1999-11	7.74%
1999-10	7.85%
1999-09	7.82%
1999-08	7.94%
1999-07	7.63%
1999-06	7.55%
1999-05	7.15%
1999-04	6.92%
1999-03	7.04%
1999-02	6.81%
1999-01	6.79%
1998-12	6.74%
1998-11	6.87%
1998-10	6.71%
1998-09	6.72%
1998-08	6.92%
1998-07	6.95%
1998-06	7.00%
1998-05	7.14%
1998-04	7.14%
1998-03	7.13%
1998-02	7.04%
1998-01	6.99%
1997-12	7.10%
1997-11	7.21%
1997-10	7.29%
1997-09	7.43%
1997-08	7.48%
1997-07	7.50%
1997-06	7.69%
1997-05	7.94%
1997-04	8.14%
1997-03	7.90%
1997-02	7.65%
1997-01	7.82%
1996-12	7.60%
1996-11	7.62%
1996-10	7.92%
1996-09	8.23%
1996-08	8.00%
1996-07	8.25%
1996-06	8.32%
1996-05	8.07%
1996-04	7.93%
1996-03	7.62%
1996-02	7.08%
1996-01	7.03%
1995-12	7.20%
1995-11	7.38%
1995-10	7.47%
1995-09	7.64%
1995-08	7.86%
1995-07	7.61%
1995-06	7.57%
1995-05	7.96%
1995-04	8.32%
1995-03	8.46%
1995-02	8.83%
1995-01	9.15%
1994-12	9.20%
1994-11	9.17%
1994-10	8.93%
1994-09	8.64%
1994-08	8.51%
1994-07	8.61%
1994-06	8.40%
1994-05	8.60%
1994-04	8.32%
1994-03	7.67%
1994-02	7.15%
1994-01	7.06%
1993-12	7.17%
1993-11	7.16%
1993-10	6.83%
1993-09	6.92%
1993-08	7.11%
1993-07	7.21%
1993-06	7.42%
1993-05	7.46%
1993-04	7.47%
1993-03	7.50%
1993-02	7.68%
1993-01	7.99%
1992-12	8.21%
1992-11	8.30%
1992-10	8.09%
1992-09	7.92%
1992-08	7.97%
1992-07	8.13%
1992-06	8.51%
1992-05	8.67%
1992-04	8.85%
1992-03	8.93%
1992-02	8.76%
1992-01	8.43%
1991-12	8.50%
1991-11	8.71%
1991-10	8.86%
1991-09	9.01%
1991-08	9.24%
1991-07	9.57%
1991-06	9.62%
1991-05	9.47%
1991-04	9.49%
1991-03	9.50%
1991-02	9.37%
1991-01	9.64%
1990-12	9.67%
1990-11	10.01%
1990-10	10.18%
1990-09	10.18%
1990-08	10.10%
1990-07	10.04%
1990-06	10.16%
1990-05	10.48%
1990-04	10.37%
1990-03	10.27%
1990-02	10.20%
1990-01	9.89%
1989-12	9.74%
1989-11	9.77%
1989-10	9.95%
1989-09	10.13%
1989-08	9.98%
1989-07	9.88%
1989-06	10.20%
1989-05	10.77%
1989-04	11.05%
1989-03	11.03%
1989-02	10.64%
1989-01	10.73%
1988-12	10.61%
1988-11	10.27%
1988-10	10.30%
1988-09	10.48%
1988-08	10.60%
1988-07	10.43%
1988-06	10.46%
1988-05	10.46%
1988-04	10.20%
1988-03	9.93%
1988-02	9.89%
1988-01	10.38%
1987-12	10.64%
1987-11	10.65%
1987-10	11.26%
1987-09	10.89%
1987-08	10.33%
1987-07	10.28%
1987-06	10.54%
1987-05	10.60%
1987-04	9.83%
1987-03	9.04%
1987-02	9.08%
1987-01	9.20%
1986-12	9.31%
1986-11	9.70%
1986-10	9.97%
1986-09	10.01%
1986-08	10.20%
1986-07	10.51%
1986-06	10.68%
1986-05	10.14%
1986-04	9.94%
1986-03	10.08%
1986-02	10.71%
1986-01	10.89%
1985-12	11.26%
1985-11	11.78%
1985-10	12.13%
1985-09	12.19%
1985-08	12.19%
1985-07	12.03%
1985-06	12.21%
1985-05	12.91%
1985-04	13.19%
1985-03	13.17%
1985-02	12.92%
1985-01	13.07%
1984-12	13.18%
1984-11	13.64%
1984-10	14.13%
1984-09	14.35%
1984-08	14.47%
1984-07	14.67%
1984-06	14.42%
1984-05	13.94%
1984-04	13.65%
1984-03	13.39%
1984-02	13.23%
1984-01	13.37%
1983-12	13.42%
1983-11	13.44%
1983-10	13.53%
1983-09	13.73%
1983-08	13.81%
1983-07	13.42%
1983-06	12.87%
1983-05	12.63%
1983-04	12.78%
1983-03	12.80%
1983-02	13.04%
1983-01	13.25%
1982-12	13.62%
1982-11	13.82%
1982-10	14.61%
1982-09	15.43%
1982-08	16.27%
1982-07	16.82%
1982-06	16.70%
1982-05	16.68%
1982-04	16.89%
1982-03	17.16%
1982-02	17.60%
1982-01	17.48%
1981-12	16.95%
1981-11	17.83%
1981-10	18.45%
1981-09	18.16%
1981-08	17.29%
1981-07	16.83%
1981-06	16.70%
1981-05	16.40%
1981-04	15.58%
1981-03	15.40%
1981-02	15.13%
1981-01	14.90%
1980-12	14.79%
1980-11	14.21%
1980-10	13.79%
1980-09	13.20%
1980-08	12.56%
1980-07	12.19%
1980-06	12.71%
1980-05	14.26%
1980-04	16.33%
1980-03	15.28%
1980-02	13.04%
1980-01	12.88%
1979-12	12.90%
1979-11	12.83%
1979-10	11.64%
1979-09	11.30%
1979-08	11.09%
1979-07	11.09%
1979-06	11.04%
1979-05	10.69%
1979-04	10.50%
1979-03	10.43%
1979-02	10.41%
1979-01	10.39%
1978-12	10.35%
1978-11	10.11%
1978-10	9.86%
1978-09	9.76%
1978-08	9.79%
1978-07	9.74%
1978-06	9.71%
1978-05	9.57%
1978-04	9.36%
1978-03	9.20%
1978-02	9.14%
1978-01	9.02%
1977-12	8.96%
1977-11	8.92%
1977-10	8.92%
1977-09	8.90%
1977-08	8.94%
1977-07	8.94%
1977-06	8.86%
1977-05	8.83%
1977-04	8.75%
1977-03	8.69%
1977-02	8.67%
1977-01	8.72%
1976-12	8.79%
1976-11	8.81%
1976-10	8.93%
1976-09	8.98%
1976-08	9.00%
1976-07	8.93%
1976-06	8.85%
1976-05	8.77%
1976-04	8.73%
1976-03	8.75%
1976-02	8.81%
1976-01	9.02%
1975-12	9.10%
1975-11	9.14%
1975-10	9.22%
1975-09	9.13%
1975-08	8.94%
1975-07	8.89%
1975-06	8.89%
1975-05	8.91%
1975-04	8.82%
1975-03	8.90%
1975-02	9.11%
1975-01	9.43%
1974-12	9.62%
1974-11	9.79%
1974-10	9.98%
1974-09	9.96%
1974-08	9.59%
1974-07	9.28%
1974-06	9.09%
1974-05	8.97%
1974-04	8.58%
1974-03	8.41%
1974-02	8.46%
1974-01	8.54%
1973-12	8.54%
1973-11	8.58%
1973-10	8.77%
1973-09	8.81%
1973-08	8.50%
1973-07	8.05%
1973-06	7.73%
1973-05	7.65%
1973-04	7.54%
1973-03	7.46%
1973-02	7.44%
1973-01	7.44%
1972-12	7.44%
1972-11	7.43%
1972-10	7.42%
1972-09	7.42%
1972-08	7.40%
1972-07	7.39%
1972-06	7.37%
1972-05	7.37%
1972-04	7.29%
1972-03	7.30%
1972-02	7.32%
1972-01	7.44%
1971-12	7.48%
1971-11	7.55%
1971-10	7.63%
1971-09	7.69%
1971-08	7.70%
1971-07	7.60%
1971-06	7.53%
1971-05	7.43%
1971-04	7.31%

Monthly chart values average the observations dated in each month; the latest month can be partial. These are current-vintage data. A historical rate applied to today’s price is a scenario, not a reconstruction of historical affordability.

Explore the city-wide rent history

Zillow Observed Rent Index, all rental homes and multifamily, smoothed and not seasonally adjusted. Missing months remain missing. A rent index divided by a sale-price median is not a matched-property rental yield.

Rent observation month

Rental benchmarks for Jul 2026
City	Monthly rental benchmark
Daly City	$2,765

City-wide rents over time

Nominal dollars. Each series covers the named geography. 2017-11 to 2026-07.

Daly City $2.8K

View exact values (105 periods)

City-wide rents over time: nominal USD; missing values are unavailable
Month	Daly City
2026-07	$2,765
2026-06	$2,748
2026-05	$2,721
2026-04	$2,708
2026-03	$2,691
2026-02	$2,633
2026-01	$2,595
2025-12	$2,577
2025-11	$2,600
2025-10	$2,596
2025-09	$2,590
2025-08	$2,586
2025-07	$2,573
2025-06	$2,580
2025-05	$2,555
2025-04	$2,535
2025-03	$2,515
2025-02	$2,504
2025-01	$2,498
2024-12	$2,469
2024-11	$2,480
2024-10	$2,484
2024-09	$2,499
2024-08	$2,506
2024-07	$2,496
2024-06	$2,506
2024-05	$2,495
2024-04	$2,496
2024-03	$2,484
2024-02	$2,475
2024-01	$2,476
2023-12	$2,469
2023-11	$2,477
2023-10	$2,498
2023-09	$2,484
2023-08	$2,492
2023-07	$2,458
2023-06	$2,452
2023-05	$2,418
2023-04	$2,478
2023-03	$2,478
2023-02	$2,479
2023-01	$2,432
2022-12	$2,427
2022-11	$2,420
2022-10	$2,400
2022-09	$2,402
2022-08	$2,409
2022-07	$2,391
2022-06	$2,390
2022-05	$2,395
2022-04	$2,405
2022-03	$2,410
2022-02	$2,379
2022-01	$2,375
2021-12	$2,318
2021-11	$2,296
2021-10	$2,267
2021-09	$2,273
2021-08	$2,279
2021-07	$2,282
2021-06	$2,274
2021-05	$2,218
2021-04	$2,191
2021-03	$2,186
2021-02	$2,213
2021-01	$2,195
2020-12	$2,192
2020-11	$2,202
2020-10	$2,251
2020-09	$2,251
2020-08	$2,274
2020-07	$2,289
2020-06	$2,348
2020-05	$2,372
2020-04	$2,364
2020-03	$2,337
2020-02	$2,290
2020-01	$2,308
2019-12	$2,262
2019-11	$2,326
2019-10	$2,297
2019-09	$2,346
2019-08	$2,292
2019-07	$2,330
2019-06	$2,318
2019-05	$2,324
2019-04	$2,271
2019-03	$2,266
2019-02	$2,268
2019-01	$2,252
2018-12	$2,226
2018-11	$2,195
2018-10	$2,208
2018-09	$2,260
2018-08	$2,279
2018-07	$2,277
2018-06	$2,291
2018-05	$2,286
2018-04	$2,271
2018-03	$2,208
2018-02	$2,187
2018-01	$2,188
2017-12	$2,208
2017-11	$2,201

Why rents and ownership costs belong in the lab

They make the price of a home easier to interpret. They also give us a separate longer-term hypothesis to test. Your cost assumptions do not become an appreciation forecast or a weight in the forecast mixer.

Research on prices and rents Research on ownership cost Data coverage and limits

Jobs & housing · structural evidence

Is housing keeping up with local growth?

See how employment and the number of homes changed. Housing-stock totals let us compare construction across cities of different sizes.

Supply comparison year

Housing: January 1. Jobs: Q2 snapshot. Completions: full calendar year.All housing types. Job history currently ends in 2023.

2023 snapshots and three-year growth through 2023. The jobs and stock reference months differ, as labeled.
Measure	Daly City
Total homes · Jan 1, 2023	34,049
Housing-stock growth · Jan 2020–Jan 2023	+1.9%
Workplace jobs · Q2 2023	20,560
Job growth · Q2 2020–Q2 2023	+20.2%
Completed homes during 2023	38
Completions per 100 homes present at the start of the year	0.11

Completions include replacement construction. “2 completions per 100 homes” does not mean the stock grew 2%. Workplace jobs are not resident households.

Housing stock over time

All series start at 100 in 2011. 2011 to 2023.

Daly City 104.5

View exact values (13 periods)

Housing stock over time: homes; missing values are unavailable
January 1 snapshot	Daly City
2023	34,049
2022	33,934
2021	33,762
2020	33,418
2019	33,354
2018	33,247
2017	33,080
2016	33,023
2015	32,975
2014	32,972
2013	32,717
2012	32,700
2011	32,596

Workplace jobs over time

All series start at 100 in 2012. 2012 to 2023.

Daly City 106.3

View exact values (12 periods)

Workplace jobs over time: jobs; missing values are unavailable
Q2 snapshot year	Daly City
2023	20,560
2022	19,430
2021	17,685
2020	17,099
2019	19,616
2018	19,353
2017	19,237
2016	19,399
2015	19,271
2014	20,035
2013	19,404
2012	19,345

The idea we’re testing

Stronger demand may translate into higher prices when housing responds slowly. A useful test needs both sides of that relationship. Low construction on its own can also reflect weak demand.

Evidence, gaps and the next test

Federal Reserve research on jobs and construction constraints supports studying the interaction. It does not establish a forecast for these cities.

The new stock history closes a denominator gap. The proposed multi-year forecasting study still has too few mature observations under its source-lag assumptions. Two completion years remain withheld: San Bruno 2020 and South San Francisco 2024. We need documented historical availability and broader coverage before a new predictive test.

DOF estimates include vacant homes and revisions. We use January snapshots consistently and reconcile the overlapping April 2020 benchmarks. Geography definitions across DOF, Census and city completion reports also need care. All charts are reconstructed from the retained releases.

Housing-stock sources Jobs and completion sources Download the evidence

Price forecasts · experimental

Explore a thesis, then check its record

The current annual forecasts use three price and tax-base signals. None earned selection over matching the county. The new Market outlook predicts contract time in days. It has its own weights and track record; cost scenarios and jobs/housing evidence also answer different questions.

See each family’s research and validation status →

Understand the models, then choose weights

These three models test price and tax-base signals. Each learns a relationship from earlier data, then estimates the city's next-year home-value growth relative to San Mateo County. An input is not itself a prediction.

None passed the original selection test. “Match the county” remains the selected baseline. The models share data and a study design; agreement is not independent confirmation.

Momentum · experimental

Recent price performance

Does how a city performed recently help predict its next year?

What it measures: The city's home-value growth over the past 12 months, minus San Mateo County's growth over those same months.
Made-up example · input only: City values rise 12% and county values rise 8%. The input is +4 percentage points of recent outperformance.
How to interpret it: The fitted relationship can favor a reversal. This model does not simply predict that recent winners keep winning; “Repeat recent relative growth” is the separate rule that does that.

Exact input calculation and earlier test

City 12-month percentage change − county 12-month percentage change.

Average absolute prediction error in the earlier model-selection test: 1.601 percentage points. County baseline: 1.346. Lower is better; selection also required consistency across years.

Momentum weight (%)

Relative value · experimental

Price gap versus history

Does a change in a city's usual price relationship to the county help predict its next year?

What it measures: Today's city-to-county home-value ratio, compared with its average over the preceding 60 months.
Made-up example · input only: The city's index is 80% of the county index today, versus an average of 88% previously. The model's gap input is +10%: 88 ÷ 80 − 1.
How to interpret it: This measures relative price level, not relative growth or affordability. A positive gap is not proof of a bargain and does not imply a 10% price rise.

Exact input calculation and earlier test

100 × (average of the preceding 60 monthly city/county ratios ÷ current ratio − 1). The current month is excluded from the average.

Average absolute prediction error in the earlier model-selection test: 1.398 percentage points. County baseline: 1.346. Lower is better; selection also required consistency across years.

Relative value weight (%)

Assessment growth · experimental

Taxable property growth

Does growth in the taxable property base help predict home-value growth?

What it measures: Three-year growth in the city's net assessment roll, minus the county's growth. The roll is the taxable value of property, across property classes.
Made-up example · input only: The city's taxable property total grows 12% over three years and the county's grows 8%. The input is +4 percentage points.
How to interpret it: Tax rules and multiple property classes affect this total. It is not a home-price index, city revenue, or a direct measure of jobs or commercial growth.

Exact input calculation and earlier test

City three-year net assessment-roll percentage change − county change. Use January of the year before the July feature cutoff, with a three-year lookback. This assumed lag is not verified historical publication timing.

Average absolute prediction error in the earlier model-selection test: 1.392 percentage points. County baseline: 1.346. Lower is better; selection also required consistency across years.

Assessment growth weight (%)

Weights total 0%. Set whole percentages totaling 100% to see a blend.

A 50% weight means half of that model's prediction contributes to the mix. It does not mean a 50% chance the model is right. Zero removes a model; changing weights does not retrain it. The exact equal-weight average stays visible as a comparison.

Choose a single model or set weights totaling 100%.

Methods, versions and source files

Component forecasts were issued 2026-09-15T02:02:10Z. model-lab-v1 uses the original housing-screen-v1 rules and data. Every model shares the same target, benchmark, home type, cutoff and horizon. A missing selected prediction withholds the blend; no weight is silently reassigned.

Earlier validation selected the county baseline. The original decision and paper record stay unchanged. Scores here are recomputed from blended predictions, not averaged component errors.

Download all component predictions, historical outcomes and source hashes · Read the original track record

Source manifest SHA-256: 46f922fcefd73314d74781232e4679632900b1fe429ec6af31c61ab00df388d7

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Daly City

Homes available over time

Time to reach a contract

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One clear target: days from listing to contract

Current pace

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Contract-time trend

Supply & demand

Daly City

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Daly City: scenario versus observed contract time

October–December 2026: keep the prediction, check the outcome

What could owning cost you?

Local benchmarks to help you start

Daly City

Your assumptions

Build your comparison

What price fits your monthly limit and cash?

National 30-year mortgage rate history

City-wide rents over time

Why rents and ownership costs belong in the lab

Is housing keeping up with local growth?

Housing stock over time

Workplace jobs over time

The idea we’re testing

Explore a thesis, then check its record

Understand the models, then choose weights

Recent price performance

Price gap versus history

Taxable property growth