Housing Alpha / Rental investment guide / September 19, 2026
Where can a rental actually pay for itself?
Start with the rent a property is advertised to collect. Then test financing, the full cost of ownership and the cash needed when something goes wrong.
Two leads with income potential. The margin matters.
At 25% down and a 7.75% planning rate, two of ten advertised-active properties have positive modeled monthly cash flow. Neither passes every income and stress hurdle at that rate. One passes at 7.0%, assuming its advertised rent and cost allowances hold. No property has verified leases, inspections, insurance or financing quotes.
Cleveland, OH · CLE nonstop listed
10305 Manor Avenue
$129,000 asking · $2,416/month advertised rent
$363/month at 7.75%
$445 at 6.5% → $313 at 8.5%.
Operating stress: -$18/month. At 7.0%, the modeled cash flow is $413 and the stress case stays slightly positive.
These are research leads, not proven profitable investments. The sample deliberately seeks lower-cost rentals and includes weak and unavailable examples; it does not measure the share of profitable listings in any city. All figures are before income tax and exclude appreciation from monthly income.
The comparison uses 25% down. All-cash removes the loan and changes capital required.
What changes across the four scenarios
Interest rate
Positive property cash flow
All four hurdles
Positive metro proxies
6.50%
3 / 10
1 / 10
0 / 59
7.00%
3 / 10
1 / 10
0 / 59
7.75%
2 / 10
0 / 10
0 / 59
8.50%
2 / 10
0 / 10
0 / 59
Passing requires at least $250/month, 6% cash-on-cash, 1.25× debt coverage after replacement allowances, and nonnegative operating stress. Those are editorial screening hurdles, not a lender approval or a validated return forecast.
Stress assumes rent 10% lower, at least 10% vacancy, and tax and insurance 25% higher. The fixed loan keeps its rate. Compare actual lender quotes on the same points, fees, term, property and down payment.
Evidence checked September 19, 2026
Start with the actual address.
Ten advertised-active listings and one pending comparison. Each case keeps the publisher’s asking price, rent claim and missing evidence separate from our expense assumptions. Known vacant units contribute zero rent.
Broker advertises occupied units at $1,229 and $1,187. Subsidy approval, leases and actual collections need confirmation. The reported $1,100 annual tax bill is not a buyer tax estimate.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
$445
$413
$363
$313
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $3,225 (2.50% of purchase price). Insurance: $225/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month. The publisher’s historical tax amount is $1,100; it is not a post-purchase bill.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Broker advertises occupied units at $1,700 and $1,950. The $658 published annual tax figure is unusually low. The model instead applies the published Pittsburgh combined millage to the full purchase price as a screening allowance, not a parcel assessment or tax quote.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
$538
$478
$386
$292
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $6,374 (2.66% of purchase price). Insurance: $250/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month. The publisher’s historical tax amount is $658; it is not a post-purchase bill.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 5% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Listing advertises a tenant lease through November 2027. The source gives inconsistent city/county labels; confirm the actual taxing and rental-registration jurisdiction. Utilities are assumed tenant-paid and need a lease check.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
$36
$12
-$25
-$62
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $1,900 (2.00% of purchase price). Insurance: $200/month. Owner utilities: $0/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month. The publisher’s historical tax amount is $1,316; it is not a post-purchase bill.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Broker advertises both units occupied. Tax allowance is the reported $4,371 annual bill plus 25%, rather than a lower generic percentage. Verify point-of-sale requirements and the post-purchase bill.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$147
-$186
-$245
-$306
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $5,464 (3.52% of purchase price). Insurance: $225/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month. The publisher’s historical tax amount is $4,371; it is not a post-purchase bill.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Both units are advertised at $850/month on month-to-month leases. No rent increase is counted. Condition, lease renewals and water/sewer responsibility remain unverified.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$347
-$389
-$454
-$520
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $4,200 (2.50% of purchase price). Insurance: $225/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Broker advertises occupied units and $1,900 combined rent. A possible $3,000 seller concession is excluded. Michigan taxable value can uncap after transfer; 4% of price is a tax allowance, not a quote.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$290
-$327
-$385
-$444
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $6,000 (4.00% of purchase price). Insurance: $250/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Broker advertises $950 and $625 rents; the smaller unit is month-to-month. Tenants reportedly reimburse water/sewer. No market-rent uplift is counted.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$577
-$631
-$716
-$802
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $4,398 (2.00% of purchase price). Insurance: $225/month. Owner utilities: $0/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month. The publisher’s historical tax amount is $3,358; it is not a post-purchase bill.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Broker advertises occupied units at $1,100 each. Renovation claims do not remove repair or replacement allowances. Availability is advertised without a dated MLS update.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$232
-$283
-$361
-$442
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $5,123 (2.50% of purchase price). Insurance: $225/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
The description says fully occupied but also gives an October 1 move-in for the second unit. Only the $1,200 occupied-unit rent is counted today. The $2,400 future total is shown separately and requires the second lease to commence.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$728
-$770
-$835
-$902
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $4,248 (2.50% of purchase price). Insurance: $225/month. Owner utilities: $125/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Only two occupied-unit rents ($750 and $600) are counted. The vacant unit contributes zero. An advertised housing-assistance payment standard is not an approved rent or a tenant lease.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
-$727
-$771
-$838
-$907
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $4,375 (2.50% of purchase price). Insurance: $275/month. Owner utilities: $150/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
Pending since September 7; retained as a comparison, excluded from available opportunities. Owner utility allowance uses the top of the advertised $300–$400 range. Conflicting historical tax bills need reconciliation.
Monthly cash flow at four financing rates
Interest rate
6.50%
7.00%
7.75%
8.50%
Monthly cash flow
$29
-$36
-$135
-$238
Expense assumptions and missing evidence
Annual tax allowance: $6,500 (2.50% of purchase price). Insurance: $325/month. Owner utilities: $400/month. Travel, administration and other costs: $100/month. The publisher’s historical tax amount is $4,490; it is not a post-purchase bill.
Vacancy 6%; management 8% of collected rent; repairs 5%, replacement 5% and leasing 3% of scheduled rent. Closing costs 4% plus $10,000 initial repairs and six months of fixed carrying reserves. Quotes, special assessments, legal units, local permits, leases and collections remain unverified.
4148 Carlyle Avenue, Cleveland, OH: Sold in June 2026; excluded despite older pages still advertising it. Source
15895 Kentucky Street, Detroit, MI: Listing removed September 15, 2026; excluded despite cached active results. Source
1117 / 1117.5 Hall Street, Pittsburgh, PA: Price/rent surfaced, but source availability and current lease evidence were insufficient for inclusion. Source
Expanded from the original 29-market screen
Explore all 73 metro areas.
The route audit covers 86 domestic airport destinations, including seasonal and future routes. They map to 73 distinct areas with August 2026 single-family value and rent indices: 59 current-route areas and 14 conditional areas. Bishop lacks a paired metro series. Multiple airports serving one metro count once.
Metro values and rents represent different homes. These figures compare market context; they do not establish the rent or yield of a property. City-level single-family rent data was unavailable, so no city-level yield is inferred by mixing apartment rents with house values.
Metro comparison allowances stay at 2% of price for annual tax, $200/month insurance, $75/month other costs, tenant-paid utilities, and the original operating percentages. These are common assumptions, not local expense estimates. The property checks above use separate address-level allowances.
Metro context at 25% down and 7.75%
Area / airports
SFO service
Typical SFR value
Typical SFR rent
Rent change / year
Modeled cash / month
Albuquerque, NMABQ
Listed current
$352,454
$2,191
2.9%
-$1,147
Atlanta, GAATL
Listed current
$384,253
$2,296
2.4%
-$1,293
Austin, TXAUS
Listed current
$424,742
$2,312
1.3%
-$1,566
Bakersfield, CABFL
Listed current
$365,372
$2,247
2.8%
-$1,196
Baltimore, MDBWI
Listed current
$412,229
$2,502
2.3%
-$1,338
Bend, ORRDM
Listed current
$673,541
$2,689
3.1%
-$3,040
Boise City, IDBOI
Listed current
$495,447
$2,320
5.4%
-$2,058
Boston, MABOS
Listed current
$773,964
$3,649
2.8%
-$3,043
Charlotte, NCCLT
Listed current
$388,423
$2,214
2.8%
-$1,383
Chicago, ILMDW / ORD
Listed current
$377,573
$2,556
4.3%
-$1,055
Cleveland, OHCLE
Listed current
$261,148
$1,758
5.4%
-$822
Columbus, OHCMH
Listed current
$354,289
$2,081
4.5%
-$1,240
Coos Bay, OROTH
Listed current
$350,029
$2,165
—
-$1,148
Dallas, TXDFW / DAL (confirm)
Listed current
$363,024
$2,371
1.6%
-$1,088
Denver, CODEN
Listed current
$585,489
$2,981
1.4%
-$2,206
Route coverage and exceptions
Current means listed without a seasonal/future qualifier; dates, frequencies, fares and booking availability were not checked. Louisville and Richmond appear only on the general list and now require confirmation. Cincinnati remains seasonal/future. Jackson Hole and Kalispell follow the seasonal qualifier on the general page. Hawaii and resort-area metro names can describe wider counties, not the airport city.
Airport
Data area
Status / note
ABQ
Albuquerque, NM
listed-current
ANC
Anchorage, AK
seasonal
ACV
Eureka, CA
listed-current
ASE
Glenwood Springs, CO
seasonal · Glenwood Springs area series includes Aspen; not Aspen-specific.
ATL
Atlanta, GA
listed-current
AUS
Austin, TX
listed-current
BFL
Bakersfield, CA
listed-current
BWI
Baltimore, MD
listed-current
BIH
No paired metro
no-data · No corresponding value/rent pair in these metro files.
BOI
Boise City, ID
listed-current
BOS
Boston, MA
listed-current
BZN
Bozeman, MT
seasonal
BUR
Los Angeles, CA
listed-current
CLD
San Diego, CA
listed-current
CLT
Charlotte, NC
listed-current
MDW
Chicago, IL
listed-current
ORD
Chicago, IL
listed-current
CVG
Cincinnati, OH
seasonal-future · Breeze seasonal / United announced for October; excluded from current-route counts.
CLE
Cleveland, OH
listed-current
CMH
Columbus, OH
listed-current · SFO carrier page prints CHM; airport code normalized to CMH.
DFW
Dallas, TX
listed-current
DAL
Dallas, TX
schedule-check · Listed on the general SFO page but absent from carrier page; dates and service need confirmation.
DEN
Denver, CO
listed-current
DTW
Detroit, MI
listed-current
EUG
Eugene, OR
listed-current
PAE
Seattle, WA
listed-current
FLL
Miami, FL
listed-current
FAT
Fresno, CA
listed-current
SUN
Hailey, ID
seasonal
HDN
Steamboat Springs, CO
seasonal
HNL
Urban Honolulu, HI
listed-current
IAH
Houston, TX
listed-current
IND
Indianapolis, IN
listed-current
JAC
Jackson, WY
seasonal · Seasonal on SFO general list; conservatively treated as seasonal.
OGG
Kahului, HI
listed-current
FCA
Kalispell, MT
seasonal · Seasonal on SFO general list; conservatively treated as seasonal.
MCI
Kansas City, MO
listed-current
KOA
Hilo, HI
listed-current · Hilo series covers Hawaii County, including Kona; not Kona-specific.
LAS
Las Vegas, NV
listed-current
LIH
Kapaa, HI
listed-current
LAX
Los Angeles, CA
listed-current
SDF
Louisville, KY
schedule-check · Listed on the general SFO page but absent from carrier page; dates and service need confirmation.
MFR
Medford, OR
listed-current
MIA
Miami, FL
listed-current
MSP
Minneapolis, MN
listed-current
MSO
Missoula, MT
seasonal
MRY
Salinas, CA
listed-current
MTJ
Montrose, CO
listed-current
BNA
Nashville, TN
listed-current
MSY
New Orleans, LA
listed-current
EWR
New York, NY
listed-current
JFK
New York, NY
listed-current
OTH
Coos Bay, OR
listed-current
OMA
Omaha, NE
seasonal
ONT
Riverside, CA
listed-current
MCO
Orlando, FL
listed-current
PSP
Riverside, CA
listed-current
PSC
Kennewick, WA
listed-current
PHL
Philadelphia, PA
listed-current
PHX
Phoenix, AZ
listed-current
PIT
Pittsburgh, PA
listed-current
PDX
Portland, OR
listed-current
PWM
Portland, ME
seasonal
PVU
Provo, UT
listed-current
RDU
Raleigh, NC
listed-current
RDD
Redding, CA
listed-current
RDM
Bend, OR
listed-current
RNO
Reno, NV
listed-current
RIC
Richmond, VA
schedule-check · Listed on the general SFO page but absent from carrier page; dates and service need confirmation.
SMF
Sacramento, CA
listed-current
STL
St. Louis, MO
listed-current
SLC
Salt Lake City, UT
listed-current
SAT
San Antonio, TX
listed-current
SBD
Riverside, CA
listed-current
SAN
San Diego, CA
listed-current
SBP
San Luis Obispo, CA
listed-current
SNA
Los Angeles, CA
listed-current
SBA
Santa Maria, CA
listed-current
SEA
Seattle, WA
listed-current
GEG
Spokane, WA
listed-current
TPA
Tampa, FL
listed-current
TUS
Tucson, AZ
listed-current
EGE
Edwards, CO
seasonal
IAD
Washington, DC
listed-current
DCA
Washington, DC
listed-current
PBI
Miami, FL
future · Future November service; within Miami metro, which already has current MIA/FLL service.
Does this property produce income and build wealth?
Load an address from the property checks above, choose an August 2026 metro proxy, or enter your own property. Replace the cost allowances with lease evidence and actual quotes. Inputs stay in your page and reset on reload.
Hypothetical two-unit property. Neither availability nor rent has been verified.
Interest is an editable scenario, not an average or lender offer. Use a quote with its points and fees in closing costs. Compare the four rates.
Same property at four interest rates
Rate scenario
Monthly cash flow
Cash-on-cash
Operating stress
Cash flow after reserves / month-
Initial cash required-
Annual cash-on-cash-
Operating stress / month-
Full screen: your monthly cash-flow target, 1.25x debt coverage after reserves, 6% cash-on-cash, and nonnegative operating stress. Stress uses 10% lower rent, at least 10% vacancy, and 25% higher tax and insurance. The fixed-rate loan payment stays unchanged. The default case's limits are judgment-based research hurdles.
Monthly amount
Calculation
Initial cash includes down payment, closing costs, initial repairs and the selected reserve months of debt, tax, insurance, owner utilities and other fixed costs. Cash flow excludes appreciation, principal paydown benefits and income-tax effects. A model pass still requires rent, condition, legal use, taxes, financing and insurance verification.
Same property / Longer view
What could you earn over the full holding period?
Start with flat prices, rents and expenses to isolate rental income and loan repayment. Then change each assumption. The three price paths below are scenarios with no assigned probability.
Fixed costs are property tax, insurance, owner utilities and other fixed expenses. Management, repairs, replacement and leasing allowances remain percentages of rent. Growth starts in year 2; sale price changes over the full holding period. The original fixed loan is paid to maturity; no refinance is assumed. Selling costs include your estimate for brokerage, transfer taxes, concessions and closing expenses.
Year 1 loan principal repaid-
Rental cash flow over the hold-
Profit after sale, before income tax-
Ahead / behind a 6% return-
The last card is net present value: it discounts annual cash flows and net exit proceeds at your comparison return, then subtracts initial cash. A positive dollar profit can still fall short of that return. The comparison rate is your opportunity-cost assumption, not a quoted or guaranteed alternative.
How different sale prices change the outcome
Bars show profit after sale, before income tax. Red bars indicate a loss. Only home price growth changes between rows; the selected rent and cost assumptions stay the same.
Same property, three possible price paths
Home price change / year
Profit after sale, before tax
Ahead / behind comparison return
See the profit calculation and annual cash flows
Profit reconciliation
Component
Amount
Loan repayment is counted once through the smaller balance paid off at sale. Returning your down payment or opening reserve is not profit. The opening reserve is held intact, earns no interest and is returned at sale; negative rental cash flow requires owner contributions. Monthly replacement allowances are assumed spent, with no second deduction or unused balance at sale. The model assumes immediate rentability and no automatic value gain from initial repairs.
Annual rental cash flow before income tax; sale is shown separately above
Year
Rent / month
Cash flow / year
Principal repaid
Loan remaining
Would a larger down payment help this property?
Only down payment changes; all costs and rent stay the same
Down payment
Cash required initially
Cash flow / month
Annual cash-on-cash
What would make a lead ready for an offer?
Reconcile the advertised rent against signed leases, subsidy contracts and a twelve-month collection ledger. Match local leased comparables by unit size and condition.
Get a property-specific lender quote, landlord insurance quote, post-purchase tax estimate, manager fee schedule and inspection repair budget. Add licensing, lead compliance, flood/wind and owner utility costs where applicable.
Confirm legal units, rental permissions, title and practical travel access. Ask how local jobs, household demand and construction affect vacancy and resale; current rent alone does not establish long-term growth.
Retain the original underwriting and compare actual income and spending at 3, 6 and 12 months. Price appreciation and a future refinance are separate scenarios.
Evidence captured September 19, 2026. Market inputs are August 2026. Listing status and financial claims are publisher observations; they can change and are not independently verified. Calculated results are retained with the exact source snapshot.
Each address links directly to its captured listing source. Expense assumptions are visible in the property cards and calculator; they are not observed city averages.